US officials say Russia has gathered at least 70 percent military firepower by the middle of the month to give President Vladimir Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Officials who discussed internal assessments of the Russian buildup, sketched on condition of anonymity A range of indicators suggest Putin intends to strike in the coming weeks, although the size and scale are not clear. He insisted that a diplomatic solution appeared possible.
Among those military indicators: an exercise by Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces that usually takes place every fall Rescheduled for mid-February to March. This coincides with what US officials see as the most likely window for an invasion. Officials made no suggestion that a potential conflict would involve the use of nuclear weapons, but the Russian exercises – including test-launches of unarmed long-range missiles on Russian territory – were used as a message aimed at deterring the West. can be done in Intervention in Ukraine.
US officials have said in recent weeks that a Russian offensive could hit Ukraine’s military relatively quickly, although Moscow could find it difficult to maintain an occupation and deal with a potential insurgency.
Ongoing Russian buildup comes as Biden administration is disclosing intelligence in hopes Anticipating Russian propaganda and blocking Putin’s plans to make excuses for aggression. But it has come under criticism for not providing evidence to support many of its claims.
On Saturday, The New York Times and The Washington Post said officials were warning that a full-fledged Russian invasion There could be a quick capture of Kiev and potentially 50,000 casualties. A US official confirmed that estimate to the Associated Press. But it is unclear how US agencies determined those numbers, and any predictions about how the invasion will proceed and the human costs it will cause are inherently uncertain given the war’s uncertainties.
President Joe Biden has said he will not send US troops to Ukraine to fight the war. However, he ordered additional forces, including headquarters personnel and combat troops, in Poland and Romania to reassure NATO allies that Washington would fulfill its treaty commitment to respond to Russian aggression against NATO territory. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but has US and allied military support and training.
Army officials announced on Saturday that Major General Christopher Donahue, Commanding General of the 82nd Airborne Division, arrived in Poland. About 1700 troops of the 82nd Airborne are stationed in Poland from Fort Bragg in North Carolina, and 300 from Bragg in Germany. Apart from this, 1,000 German soldiers are shifting to Romania.
With Growing nervousness in Eastern Europe over the creation of Russia, more attention is being paid to its placement Thousands of soldiers in Belarus, which shares borders not only with Ukraine, but also with three NATO countries – Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Biden administration may soon move some more troops in Europe for allied countries on the eastern side of NATOa US official said on Saturday, without specifying which countries.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week that Putin would use any part of the force gathered on Ukraine’s borders to seize Ukrainian cities and “critical areas” or to carry out “coercive or provocative political acts”. such as identifying different regions. Ukraine.
More recently, other US officials provided more detailed descriptions of the US approach to Russia’s continued force build-up, US assessments of the war’s prospects, and Putin’s approach to the crisis.
Officials reiterated what other Biden administration officials have been saying for weeks – that they do not believe Putin has made the final decision to invade Ukraine. But it appears possible that the Russian leader has set his intentions and is waiting until the last minute to proceed with the invasion.
Officials have over the past several months mapped the disposition of Russian forces deployed toward Ukraine’s borders, allowing Western officials to take a full-scale attack despite repeated claims by senior Russian officials that they do not intend to launch an unprovoked attack. See it as a threat of invasion. ,
As of Friday, officials said, the Russian military maintains a total of 83 “battalion tactical groups” near Ukraine, each the size of a US battalion with between 750 and 1,000 soldiers. He said this is an escalation to the status of 60 Battalion Tactical Groups just two weeks ago.
Officials said another 14 battalion tactical groups were moving from other parts of Russia to the border area. Two officials said the US assesses that Russia wants between 110 and 130 battalion tactical groups in total for use in a full-scale offensive, but Putin may decide on a more limited infiltration. Russia could aim to have 150,000 troops for a full-scale offensive, including support units, an official said, adding that the ongoing buildup could reach that level in the next few weeks.
Depending on Putin’s ultimate objective, Russian forces could attack Kiev directly, moving south from the current position in southern Belarus. Officials said it could also send troops across the Russian border into eastern and southern Ukraine if it intended to break through and destroy a large part of the Ukrainian military.
At the low end of the scale of military action, Putin could order sabotage, cyberattacks and other destabilizing actions inside Ukraine to overthrow the current government in Kiev, officials said.