In contrast, Delhi, where the second wave pushed the daily caseload to over 25,000, saw 817 cases between July 1 and 10. Several major cities have a double-digit daily tally.
There is no scientific answer yet as to why Maharashtra and Kerala report a large number of cases in the second wave for almost six months, but theories abound. Public health officials in both states say the high numbers are a testament to their transparent systems and accurate reporting.
One theory is that these numbers represent a “blip” in the second wave. “These states reported the first cases/clusters in the country during both the peaks. Higher cases may now indicate another rise in the Covid graph,” said a senior Mumbai-based doctor, who did not wish to be identified.
In Maharashtra, doctors point to the curious case of Kolhapur, where the second wave has probably peaked in the past fortnight with over 3,000 daily cases, while Mumbai has less than 800. “We have started referring to this district as the ‘Kolhapur paradox’,” said Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the state government’s task force on COVID-19. “It has the highest vaccination percentage in the entire state at 70%, but its daily test positivity is more than 10%,” said Dr Joshi. According to officials, Kolhapur cases are being reported among young people who have not yet been fully vaccinated.
Epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu said there are different reasons for their high numbers in both Kerala and Maharashtra. “Kerala has the issue of home isolation. People in isolation are spreading it to others at home,” he said. But the fact that Kerala has lower hospitalization rates and fewer deaths – 1,254 between July 1 and July 10, while Maharashtra has 3,089 – indicates an awareness of timely access to healthcare. “Kerala also has a better vaccination rate,” he said.
Regarding Maharashtra, he said that different districts have seen peaks at different times. The real concern, he said, is that the higher numbers indicate the virus is very much in circulation.
Maharashtra state officials said the cases in July have so far dropped to pre-peak levels in March. The peak-time daily average of 60,000 cases has dropped to a tenth, but the plateau has worried the government. “There are eight districts which remain a matter of concern,” a state official said.
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