When Narendra Modi became the BJP’s campaign committee chairman in 2013, ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections, he called for a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ or a grand old party-free India. The war slogan inspired BJP workers to grab power, which they had not got for 10 years. Since then, the BJP has expanded its base, uprooting the Congress in state after state.
Today, nearly a decade later, the BJP has 12 chief ministers, and the party shares power in six other states. The Congress has reduced the number of chief ministers to two, and there are only three states where it is part of the ruling coalition as a junior partner. When Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014, the BJP was ruling only seven states. The number for Congress was 13. As the latest round of state elections showed again, the BJP now retains governments even in states where chief ministers were regularly voted in.
Something else is shifting. Now the question is not whether the BJP can really oust the Congress from the political landscape of India. in spite of fall of congress, many argue, and rightly so, that the party will remain relevant. And who knows, it might even revive at some stage.
The real question is whether the BJP really wants a Congress-mukt Bharat. With the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it is in the interest of the BJP that the Congress loses seats and power, but retains some of its votes. Let’s break it down.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is the only party, after the BJP and the Congress, to have a majority government in more than one state. The AAP trounced its rival Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) for the national role and won assembly seats for the first time in Goa. While the TMC lost one seat in Manipur, the AAP made its presence felt in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. you are Preparation for the assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh And Gujarat this year and Karnataka in 2023.
The AAP has said it will now be a national and natural replacement for the Congress, and expects Arvind Kejriwal to lead India “one day”. On the other hand, TMC is again talking about an alliance with Congress after Mamata Banerjee’s big win in West Bengal in 2021. And this is where the BJP would like to look at the Congress differently (even if we are talking about 2029 and not necessarily 2024, when PM Modi wants a third consecutive term).
Reading: Say goodbye to race, caste and religion. Welcome Good Governance. opinion
If we look at the campaign style of BJP, some strong placards emerge. The party criticizes historical events such as the 1962 war with China and the imposition of a national emergency, besides accusing the Congress of corruption, minority appeasement and dynastic politics. From blaming Jawaharlal Nehru for the “many ills of the country” to taunting Rahul Gandhi for his “lack of vision and political seriousness”, the BJP needs to see the Nehru-Gandhi family as a “party with a difference”. Is.
But being just a decade old party, AAP does not have the burden of Congress. The fact that AAP came out of the anti-corruption movement, despite the continuing cases against some of its ministers and MLAs in Delhi by the Delhi Police and other central agencies, still helps in maintaining its clean image. The clean image also sticks because of the high rate of acquittals in the courts. As far as dynasty politics is concerned, no member of Arvind Kejriwal family is in politics.
AAP does not even face allegations of electorally significant minority appeasement. In fact it has projected itself as a nationalist party in its own right. Its leader Arvind Kejriwal proudly worships in temples and runs the government. Scheme to promote free pilgrimage And other such reasons.
Now let’s examine the two main proposals of the BJP in the states: faster delivery of populist schemes and stronger law and order machinery. Here too, the AAP cannot be a high-yield punching bag like the Congress. During its rule in Delhi, AAP has built the image of a party that will provide free water supply and cheap electricity, good schools and efficient hospitals to the people besides many free facilities.
Reading: ‘When you sweep with a vacuum cleaner with a broomstick in your hand’. opinion
Like any other big city, Delhi also sees a high number of criminal cases, sometimes triggering massive protests. But since Delhi Police reports to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), AAP still has a clean slate in terms of its ability to handle law and order effectively.
But can you expand your footprint in more states? The party has the experience to strive for it. In 2014 itself, it contested 434 seats and won four in Punjab, even though the party lost all seven seats to the BJP in Delhi (the same thing happened in 2019) where it quit its 49-day government a few months back. was given. Arvind Kejriwal lost to Narendra Modi in Varanasi but got around 1.80 lakh votes.
So, if the AAP expands at the national level, against whom will the BJP compare itself? The BJP wants the Congress to remain relevant to dilute AAP’s appeal. A completely non-relevant Congress could create even more trouble for the BJP. Delhi is a prime example where there is hardly any fragmentation of anti-BJP votes. The BJP is still licking its wounds in the national capital, from where it rules the country, after two consecutive resounding victories for AAP in the Delhi Assembly elections.
Even in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, most of the Congress vote bank, including Muslims, shifted to the TMC. Since many Muslims are unlikely to vote for the BJP, continued fragmentation may be the BJP’s preferred option. Even top BJP leaders have recently said that by Congress Mukt Bharat they mean an India free of “Congress culture”, not the party itself.
When the BJP boom started, the political situation was different. The Congress led several unpopular governments, and there was no third option in those states. Now, the BJP itself has been in power for more than one term in many states. And there is AAP. While Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat will vote this year, Karnataka and Tripura will vote in 2023. All these are BJP ruled states.
Reading: New bipolar system of Uttar Pradesh | opinion
AAP has said that it will contest all 68 seats in Punjab’s neighboring state of Himachal Pradesh. In Gujarat, the party has promised to be an alternative to the Congress, which has been rejected by the people of the state for nearly three decades. And it is not as if AAP, without experience, will jump into the assembly election fray in Gujarat, PM Modi’s home state.
AAP contested the 2021 civic polls in Gujarat and won at the expense of the Congress. In Gandhinagar, Surat and Rajkot, AAP got 21 per cent, 28 per cent and 17 per cent votes respectively. The AAP followed a similar civic election route—it contested and won the Chandigarh municipal election in 2021 before snatching Punjab from the Congress.
And now, AAP is gearing up for Bengaluru’s municipal election before planning for Karnataka elections. In 2018, the party contested 29 assembly seats in Karnataka and lost all of them. But the party feels that after Punjab and Goa, the situation will be different now, and considering the slide of the Congress. The AAP leadership is contemplating contesting all the 224 assembly seats in Karnataka.
In short, AAP is likely to target more and more states where the BJP and the dwindling Congress are in a direct fight. As this trend grows, the BJP wants the Congress to keep control over the AAP. In states where AAP can emerge as a third force, BJP would like Congress to survive. Weak but not mortally wounded.