The UK is facing calls for a ‘Plan B’ with virus cases rising higher and higher.
Life has returned to normal for millions in Britain as coronavirus restrictions were lifted over the summer. But while the rules have disappeared, the virus has not.
Many scientists are now calling on the government to reimpose social restrictions and accelerate booster vaccinations as the coronavirus infection rate, already among the highest in Europe, continues to rise further.
The UK reported 43,738 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, slightly less than the 49,156 reported on Monday, the biggest number since mid-July. There have been an average of more than 44,000 new infections per day compared to the previous week, up 16% from the week before.
Last week, the Office for National Statistics estimated that one in 60 people in England had the virus, one of the highest levels seen in Britain during the pandemic.
In July, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government lifted all legal restrictions imposed more than a year ago to slow the spread of the virus, including wearing face coverings and social distancing rules indoors. Nightclubs and other crowded places were allowed to open at full capacity, and people were no longer advised to work from home.
Some modelers feared a large increase in cases after the opening. That didn’t happen, but infections remained high, and have recently begun to rise—particularly in children, who largely live without vaccinations.
Also hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise, which have averaged 130 per day in the past week, with 223 reported on Tuesday alone. This is much lower than when cases were so high, before most of the population was vaccinated, but still high, critics of the government say. Britain has recorded more than 138,000 coronavirus deaths, the most in Europe after Russia.
Against that background, some feel it is too early for Britain to return to pre-pandemic behaviour. Masks and social distancing have disappeared in most settings in England, including schools, although Scotland and other parts of the UK are slightly more strict. Even in stores, where masks are recommended, and on the London transit network, where they are mandatory, it is difficult to comply.
A plan to require proof of vaccination to attend nightclubs, concerts and other mass events in England was abandoned by the Conservative government amid opposition from MPs, although Scotland launched a Vaccine Pass program this month .
Some scientists say that a big factor is a decrease in immunity. The UK immunization program began rapidly in December 2020 with shots given to the elderly and vulnerable, and about 80% of eligible people have received two doses. Early onset means that millions of people have been vaccinated for more than six months, and studies have suggested that the safety of vaccines gradually diminishes over time.
Booster shots are being offered to millions of people in the UK, but critics say the program is moving too slowly, with around 180,000 doses a day. More than half have not yet received a booster dose.
Britain also waited longer than the US and many European countries to vaccinate children aged 12-15, and in England only 15% of those in that age group have received a shot since they last month were eligible.
“It is important that we accelerate the booster program,” said epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.
Ferguson said that one factor influencing the UK’s high case numbers was that it relied heavily on the AstraZeneca vaccine, “and, while it protects very well against the very serious consequences of COVID, it is Pfizer’s vaccine.” Protects slightly less well against infection and transmission in comparison, especially in the face of the Delta version.”
He also noted that “most Western European countries have put in place more control measures, vaccine mandates, mask-wearing mandates, and have lower case numbers and certainly not case numbers that are growing as fast as we have.” “
“But at the end of the day it is a policy decision for the government,” he told the BBC.
Scientists in the UK are also tracking a new subtype of the dominant Delta strain of the virus. The mutation, known as AY4.2, is responsible for a small but growing number of cases in the UK.
François Balloux, director of the University College London Genetics Institute, said the subvariant may be slightly more permeable and is being “closely monitored”. “
A report by lawmakers released last week concluded that the British government waited too long to impose a lockdown in the early days of the pandemic, giving the disease a chance to stop and causing thousands of unnecessary deaths. Critics say he is repeating that mistake.
Last month, the prime minister said the country might need to move to “Plan B”—resuming measures like bringing in mandatory masks and vaccine passes—if cases spiked so much in the fall and winter that the health system ” Unstable “became” tension.
For now, the government says it will not change the curriculum but will try to boost vaccination rates, with a new advertising campaign and an increased number of sites outside schools where children can get their shots.
“We always knew the next few months would be challenging,” Johnson’s spokesman Max Blaine said. But he said the government was trying to protect “both lives and livelihoods”.
“Obviously we are keeping a very close watch on rising case rates,” Blaine said. “The most important message booster program is of vital importance for the public to understand.
But, he added: “There are no plans to go to Plan B.”
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