Stop looking at the daily number of Covid-19 cases as they make no sense, M Vidyasagar, head of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee, told News18.com, highlighting that it is impossible to end the spread of the virus. Because it gives dodge immunity.
According to Dr M Vidyasagar, Professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad, the raw number of people who have tested positive, in terms of omicron, is not an appropriate measure to highlight the intensity of the situation. He explained that the heavily mutated coronavirus evades vaccine-induced immunity and infection-related natural immunity, therefore leaving the human body vulnerable against it.
“We must stop looking at the number of cases to take any policy decision including closure of schools, offices lockdown, Cases will increase as people have no defense, but it will not lead to serious illness,” he told News18.com. “It’s like people will catch a cold in the winter.”
The infection will spread no matter what, he said. “The lockdown will not stop the virus from spreading. Rather it will be used to spread panic and intimidation.
“In this scenario, the number of cases per day would be high, but that in itself would not make sense. While the person tests positive for the infection, he will not get the severe form of the disease. You get the virus but not the disease,” he said.
The supermodel committee, headed by Professor Vidyasagar, also includes Professor Manindra Agarwal of IIT-Kanpur and Lieutenant General Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief of the Army Medical Services. It was formed by the Narendra Modi government to speculate on the possible spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the committee has not officially met for more than six months, the same members, along with Dr. Anurag Agarwal of CSIR Institute IGIB and Dr. Pramod Gard of DBT-THSTI, have formed the sutra consortium for project scenarios.
Data shows less chance of serious illness
Earlier worst-case estimates made by members – using data generated by South Africa – were based on the assumption that Omicron spreads about 2.2 times faster than the delta variant, that vaccination is skipped altogether. , and that natural immunity is bypassed in about 50. % of people with prior exposure to Delta.
This led to an estimated peak of 1.5 lakh daily cases occurring in mid-February. However, the estimates have changed as the assumptions have been proved wrong in the Indian context.
The data, so far, highlights that Omicron is just as contagious as Delta, Dr Vidyasagar said. “Second, natural immunity is left to anywhere between 70% and 100% of people. Therefore, the number of cases of infection is very high as there is no defense against the virus.”
Hospitalization and oxygen requirement may be very low
According to data shared by Vidyasagar, South Africa, at the start of the Omicron wave, saw about 12% hospitalizations, while India is currently registering around 3.5%. In the United Kingdom, it is even lower, around 1%.
He said that about 1.3% of cases in India require oxygen. “This means that out of every 1,000 positive cases, 35 people are hospitalized and 13 of them require oxygen. Moreover, this time the average time of hospitalization appears to be less,” he said, adding that it is too early to draw definite conclusions.
Suppose we have 10 lakh cases every day, he said, explaining the worst-case scenario. “This means there will be 35,000 hospitalizations (assuming a 3.5% hospitalization rate), of which 13,000 will require oxygen support (assuming a 1.3% hospitalization rate). Here, the discharge time is faster at about 3 to 5 days as compared to 10 days in Delta.”
“Hospitals across India should not be overwhelmed to meet these numbers unlike in the second wave when hospitalization and oxygen requirements were extremely high.”
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