Russia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on taking control of the Donbass and other areas in eastern Ukraine, according to several US officials familiar with the latest US intelligence assessments.
With more than a month into the war, Russian ground forces have been unable to take control of the areas they are fighting.
Officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to show he can show victory, and eastern Ukraine is where he is most likely to achieve. According to a US official, US intelligence suggests Putin is focusing on May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day”.
May 9 is a major holiday on the Russian calendar, the day the country marks the Nazi surrender in World War II with a massive parade of soldiers and weapons in Red Square in front of the Kremlin. Officials say Putin wants to celebrate some kind of victory in his war that day.
But other officials note that even if there is a Russian celebration, a real victory may lie ahead.
“Regardless of the state of war or peace talks, Putin will hold a victory parade on May 9,” a European defense official said. “On the other hand: a victory parade with which soldiers and vehicles?”
Still, US and European officials say whatever deadline Moscow may set for the rhetoric will not change the reality on the grounds that Russia is preparing for the prospect of an extended conflict.
A European diplomat said the Kremlin is speaking optimistically, adding that Putin is “preparing for a long, drawn-out Chechnya-style war, partly because he has nowhere else to go on this”. Is.”
Officials say there are several reasons behind the May deadline. As the winter chill ends and the ground softens, it will become harder for heavy Russian ground units to maneuver, meaning it is important for those forces to make room as quickly as possible, US intelligence assesses.
Russian-backed fighters have also been present in that area for years. The Donbass region of eastern Ukraine is where Russian separatist forces took control of the region in 2014.
Ukrainian officials have also publicly pointed to the date. “Before May 9, Putin has set the goal of a victory parade for this war,” Ukrainian Security Council secretary Oleksey Danilov said on Thursday.
Ukraine’s former prime minister Arseny Yatsenyuk told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Friday that Ukrainians believe they are facing a “very complicated and difficult month” as Putin tries to meet a deadline.
“His ultimate goal was, and will remain, the capture of Ukraine, but he failed. He was a very strong determination of the Ukrainian military and a very strong unity of Ukraine and the Western world, and imposed by the United States and the G7 and the European Union. The reasons were determined by the sanctions that were put in place. The reasons failed, ”Yatsenyuk said. “So now, as far as I see, Putin has turned to Plan B. I believe this Plan B has some sort of time limit.”
Two US officials said the US also assesses that Putin is now preparing to designate a composite commander of the war for the first time in order to achieve greater Russian successes. The US believes that Putin will likely name a general who has lived in the southern part of Ukraine because it is where the Russians have succeeded in their objectives.