General elections in India are neither T20 cricket nor One-Day Internationals. That might happen if we ever get to ‘One Nation, One Election’. At present with polling schedules stretching over six weeks, they resemble a Test Series. Or, perhaps, it would be more appropriate to compare it with a cross-country marathon — whereas the state elections that preceded are like sprints and hurdles. Simultaneously, therefore, the Lok Sabha polls become a long game of narrative-setting.
The first round of polling took place on Friday the 19th across 102 constituencies with a little over 16 crore voters. This was the largest phase. With this, 10 states and Union Territories, including Tamil Nadu and Uttarakhand, have completed their voting. However, the turnout of approximately 65.5%, was a tad lower than 70% recorded in 2019. This is being interpreted variously. In the absence of any published Exit Poll, there is no way of knowing except guessing from the buzz in social media and grapevine.
Thus, it’s hardly surprising that spin doctors have gone on an overdrive and social media warriors are working overtime to build the storyline for their respective constituencies. It is also natural that the perceived weaker team would try to up the ante disproportionately in a proverbial David versus Goliath fight. That is fair game when there is an apparent lack of a level playing field.
A purported “opinion poll” allegedly conducted by a reputable electoral research agency has been ‘leaked’ which suggests that BJP’s confidence of a resounding victory may be misplaced. The actual contest may be much tighter. Though the renowned pollster has denied the existence of such a survey, his interviews with certain media outlets tend to corroborate the larger contours of the alleged study. This has provided fuel to the theories of the going getting tough for the BJP. Stray straws are being invoked from the wind to buttress this theory — for example, the sudden cancellation of a trip by a global automobile and social media tycoon, inferring that he called off his visit because he didn’t wish to meet a lame duck Prime Minister on his way out. To top it all, a shift of gear by the Prime Minister in his latest election speeches is being cited as a sign of nervousness.
Notwithstanding the above, what has definitely changed since the previous week is that some life seems to have been injected into what was appearing to be a dull election till a few days ago. People coming out to vote in such large numbers braving the scorching summer heat and politicians stepping up campaigning both in decibel levels and physical touring belies any assumptions of the outcome of the polls being a foregone conclusion. So, what could have enthused the ordinary voter to participate in the so-called “festival or dance of democracy” with renewed gusto? There are quite a few hypotheses for that.
First, as the principal opposition party would like to believe, some of their promises have resonated with large sections of the voters, especially women, the youth, and the underprivileged classes, namely Dalits and tribals, who have found hope in the promise for a caste census. Though exaggerated, there may be some substance in this claim. A certain degree of anti-incumbency is bound to have accumulated over a decade and some dividend will accrue to the challenger. This is also reflected in the higher vote-share predictions for the Congress in many of the published opinion polls.
The BJP fought the 2014 and 2019 elections in Modi’s name — when his popularity was at its pinnacle. So, local disenchantments against incumbent BJP parliamentarians were swept away by Modi’s charisma. This was demonstrated incontrovertibly in the results of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where the BJP swept the Lok Sabha polls after facing defeat in the immediately preceding assembly elections. Whether the Modi magic will be able to entirely paper over the non-performance and grievances at the local level one has to wait and see.
Narendra Modi would not have been unaware of this challenge. Hence some pre-emptive action was taken in replacing candidates and stitching alliances with regional parties and breakaway groups like in Maharashtra. But that may not have been able to fully neutralise the damage, as dropped candidates may turn rebels, either overt or covert, and accommodating erstwhile adversaries may invite pushback from the cadre, especially the hardcore RSS workers. Then a few mistakes in ticket distribution are also bound to happen.
As the I.N.D.I. Alliance failed to gel, most of the regional parties realised they had to fend for themselves to protect their own turf. After all, many of the regional chieftains, who are already advanced in change, do not have the luxury of waiting for another chance. Nor do they have the luxury of relaunching their progeny repeatedly a la the Gandhis. Therefore, many of them have converted these elections into an intensely regional battle from the near presidential mode. In those states, including some Congress-ruled ones like Telangana and Karnataka, these elections are being fought equally on local issues and sub-nationalistic sentiments — Tamil Nadu being a case in point. This could be a chink in the armour of BJP.
But knowing Narendra Modi, his extraordinary acumen to judge the pulse of the electorate, and the BJP’s formidable election backroom, it would be simplistic and naive to believe Modi-Shah would not have factored in the various scenarios and contingency plans. However, no one is infallible. The best of men falter in their judgement and sometimes succumb to hubris. That is what makes elections so interesting. But conversely, the very fact that the opposition does not consider the elections an open-and-shut case — despite its misgivings about the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) — negates the other widely propagated proposition of these elections being “fixed” or “stage-managed”.
When it comes to conjectures, one person’s guess is as good as that of another. But sometimes predictions are made on hope rather than reality on the ground. Even worse with the idea of influencing voters. We have seen this phenomenon in 2019 — and also during state elections, most notably, Uttar Pradesh in 2022. Time and again the Indian voter has outfoxed the strategists and pundits. This is the most distinguishing feature of Indian democracy that those who ratchet up the canard of “Democracy in Danger” fail to get.
The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.