The Pentagon on Wednesday sharply increased its estimate of China’s estimated nuclear weapons arsenal in the coming years, saying Beijing could have 700 by 2027 and possibly 1,000 by 2030. Although the numbers will still be significantly lower than the current US nuclear stockpile, they represent a significant change in the US projection from last year, when the Pentagon warned that the Chinese arsenal would top 400 by the end of the decade.
Washington has repeatedly called on China and Russia to join a new arms control treaty.
In its comprehensive annual report to Congress on China’s military, the Pentagon reiterated concerns about increasing pressure on self-governing Taiwan, an island that China views as a separate province, and China’s chemical and biological programs and technological progress. .
But the report placed special emphasis on China’s growing nuclear arsenal.
“Over the next decade, the PRC aims to modernize, diversify and expand its nuclear forces,” the report said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.
It said that China has started building at least three intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said, “Whether China follows these projections of the United States will depend largely on the policies and actions of the United States.”
“The ability for China to increase its arsenal to these levels underscores the urgent need for pragmatic bilateral or multilateral dialogue to reduce nuclear risk,” Kimball said.
China says its arsenal dwarfs those of the United States and Russia, and is ready to negotiate, but only if Washington reduces its nuclear stockpile to China’s level.
The United States has a stockpile of 3,750 nuclear warheads, of which 1,389 were deployed as of September 1.
Taiwan exposure
Beijing has vowed to bring under its rule strongly democratic Taiwan, which it considers its “sacred territory” and has not renounced the use of force.
The Pentagon report renewed concerns about China’s growing mighty military and the development of options to take on Taiwan, one of several scenarios the US military had warned Beijing of.
But a senior US defense official who briefed reporters declined to speculate about whether that scenario was possible or whether he saw a near- or medium-term risk of an armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei. Is.
In a long list of possible Taiwan scenarios outlined at the briefing, the US official cited the possibility that China could work out options for everything from a joint blockade campaign against Taiwan to a full-scale amphibious invasion.
It can carry out air and missile attacks or cyber attacks. China could potentially seize offshore islands as well. The official declined to say which of these contingency was most likely or if any.
But the Pentagon has expressed concern about China’s exploration of capabilities that would enable such actions.
“They have a lot of different things they want to be prepared to do,” the official said.
Separately, the top US general said on Wednesday that China is unlikely to try to seize Taiwan militarily in the next few years.
“Based on my analysis of China, I don’t think that’s likely in the near future – being defined as, you know, six, 12, maybe 24 months, that kind of window,” Gen Mark Milley, the chairman, said the Joint Chiefs of Staff when asked whether China was preparing to take any action on Taiwan in the near future.
The Pentagon report added a section on China’s biological weapons and potential dual use, but did not look at the origins of COVID-19.
The focus has been on China’s chemical and biological capabilities since COVID-19 was first identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.
US intelligence agencies said last week that they may never be able to identify the origins of the pandemic, as they issued a detailed version of their review on whether the coronavirus came from animal-to-human transmission or any other virus. Leaked from the lab.
China has consistently denied allegations that the virus leaked from a specialist laboratory in Wuhan.
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