NEW DELHI: The daily Covid-19 caseload in India, which currently stands at around 7,500 infections, starts displacing the Omicron delta as the dominant version, informed members of the National covid-19 supermodel committee and predicted a third wave in India in the initial year.
Vidyasagar, who also heads the National Committee on Covid-19 Supermodels, said that there will be a third wave of omicrons in India but it will be lighter than the second wave.
“India is likely to have a third wave early next year. It should be milder than the second wave because of the rampant immunity that exists in the country. There will definitely be a third wave. Right now, we are at around 7,500. Once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant, the cases per day increase,” he told ANI.
Vidyasagar, who is also a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad, said it is unlikely that India will see more daily cases than in the second wave.
“It is highly unlikely that the third wave will see more daily cases than the second wave. Please remember that the Indian government started immunizing ordinary Indians (that is, other than front-line workers) from March 1 , which was just about the time the Delta version hit. So the Delta version hit a population that was 100 percent vaccine-naive, except for frontline workers.”
He further said that according to a sero-survey, there is a small fraction left which has not been exposed to the delta virus. “We now have “reach” for epidemics of 75 percent to 80 percent (pre-exposure), first dose for 85 percent of adults, both doses for 55 percent of adults, and 95 percent. (meaning a small portion of the public) Haven’t come in contact with this virus.
“So the third wave will not see daily cases as in the second wave. We have also built our capacity based on that experience, so we should be able to cope without any difficulty.”
Elaborating further, the IIT professor said that the number of cases will depend on two factors, each of which is currently unknown. “First, the extent to which Omicron bypasses the natural immunity acquired from prior exposure to the delta,” he said.
Citing the second reason, he said, “Second, the extent to which Omicron bypasses the immunity provided by vaccination. Because these are not known, we have generated various “scenarios”, assuming (eg. ) 100 percent vaccine protection remains, or only 50 percent remains, or it is all gone. Same for natural immunity escape. For each scenario, we estimate the number of cases that could result ”
According to Vidyasagar, in the worst-case scenario, India will have no more than two lakh cases per day in case the country is hit by a third wave.
“I emphasize that these are estimates, not predictions. We can start making predictions when we know how the virus is behaving in the Indian population. Based on our simulations, in the worst-case scenario that we have I.e. vaccination provided due to total loss of immunity and maximum loss of naturally induced immunity, the number of cases remains below 1.7 to 1.8 lakh cases per day. This is half of the peak during the second wave. less than that.”
“India is expected to report one lakh to two lakh cases per day which will be less than the second wave,” Maninda Agarwal, another member of the panel, told ANI.
Elaborating on the record rise in Covid-19 infections, Agarwal said the UK has high vaccine penetration (but with most mRNA vaccines), but low sero-prevalence.
“India has both high sero-prevalence which provides a lot of natural immunity, as well as high vaccine penetration. The UK has an older population as well as more problems of obesity etc. That is why tomorrow The UK had 93,045 cases while India, with 20 times the population, had 7,145 cases. In my view, people trying to draw conclusions about what will happen in India based on what is happening in the UK is a big deal. Must be making a mistake.”
“If we look at South Africa, and especially Gauteng province, where omicron was first identified, we see a rapid increase in cases, but initially hospitalizations are not increasing at the same level. and is now beginning to plateau. The situation in South Africa is the opposite in the United States, with low vaccine penetration but high sero-prevalence, (India has both parameters high, as noted above .), “They said.
Agarwal said, “This allows us to learn the difference between a vaccine and natural immunity. However, the effect of Omicron in the UK cannot be directly translated to India, as the two countries have very different levels of natural immunity. ”
The panel recognizes that community transmission of Omicron has already begun.
Vidyasagar said, “Continue to follow the proper treatment of COVID. Prevention is better than cure.”
Vidyasagar, who also heads the National Committee on Covid-19 Supermodels, said that there will be a third wave of omicrons in India but it will be lighter than the second wave.
“India is likely to have a third wave early next year. It should be milder than the second wave because of the rampant immunity that exists in the country. There will definitely be a third wave. Right now, we are at around 7,500. Once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant, the cases per day increase,” he told ANI.
Vidyasagar, who is also a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad, said it is unlikely that India will see more daily cases than in the second wave.
“It is highly unlikely that the third wave will see more daily cases than the second wave. Please remember that the Indian government started immunizing ordinary Indians (that is, other than front-line workers) from March 1 , which was just about the time the Delta version hit. So the Delta version hit a population that was 100 percent vaccine-naive, except for frontline workers.”
He further said that according to a sero-survey, there is a small fraction left which has not been exposed to the delta virus. “We now have “reach” for epidemics of 75 percent to 80 percent (pre-exposure), first dose for 85 percent of adults, both doses for 55 percent of adults, and 95 percent. (meaning a small portion of the public) Haven’t come in contact with this virus.
“So the third wave will not see daily cases as in the second wave. We have also built our capacity based on that experience, so we should be able to cope without any difficulty.”
Elaborating further, the IIT professor said that the number of cases will depend on two factors, each of which is currently unknown. “First, the extent to which Omicron bypasses the natural immunity acquired from prior exposure to the delta,” he said.
Citing the second reason, he said, “Second, the extent to which Omicron bypasses the immunity provided by vaccination. Because these are not known, we have generated various “scenarios”, assuming (eg. ) 100 percent vaccine protection remains, or only 50 percent remains, or it is all gone. Same for natural immunity escape. For each scenario, we estimate the number of cases that could result ”
According to Vidyasagar, in the worst-case scenario, India will have no more than two lakh cases per day in case the country is hit by a third wave.
“I emphasize that these are estimates, not predictions. We can start making predictions when we know how the virus is behaving in the Indian population. Based on our simulations, in the worst-case scenario that we have I.e. vaccination provided due to total loss of immunity and maximum loss of naturally induced immunity, the number of cases remains below 1.7 to 1.8 lakh cases per day. This is half of the peak during the second wave. less than that.”
“India is expected to report one lakh to two lakh cases per day which will be less than the second wave,” Maninda Agarwal, another member of the panel, told ANI.
Elaborating on the record rise in Covid-19 infections, Agarwal said the UK has high vaccine penetration (but with most mRNA vaccines), but low sero-prevalence.
“India has both high sero-prevalence which provides a lot of natural immunity, as well as high vaccine penetration. The UK has an older population as well as more problems of obesity etc. That is why tomorrow The UK had 93,045 cases while India, with 20 times the population, had 7,145 cases. In my view, people trying to draw conclusions about what will happen in India based on what is happening in the UK is a big deal. Must be making a mistake.”
“If we look at South Africa, and especially Gauteng province, where omicron was first identified, we see a rapid increase in cases, but initially hospitalizations are not increasing at the same level. and is now beginning to plateau. The situation in South Africa is the opposite in the United States, with low vaccine penetration but high sero-prevalence, (India has both parameters high, as noted above .), “They said.
Agarwal said, “This allows us to learn the difference between a vaccine and natural immunity. However, the effect of Omicron in the UK cannot be directly translated to India, as the two countries have very different levels of natural immunity. ”
The panel recognizes that community transmission of Omicron has already begun.
Vidyasagar said, “Continue to follow the proper treatment of COVID. Prevention is better than cure.”
,