WASHINGTON: Ukraine’s economy is expected to contract by 10% in 2022 as a result of Russia’s invasion, but the outlook could rapidly deteriorate if the conflict lasts longer, the International Monetary Fund said in a staff report released on Monday. said in.
The report, prepared ahead of the IMF’s approval of $1.4 billion in emergency financing, said Ukraine’s economic output could shrink by 25% to 35%, based on real wartime GDP data from Iraq, Lebanon and other countries at war. could. ,
A March 7 report said Ukraine has an external financing gap of $4.8 billion, but its financial needs are expected to grow and will require significant additional concessional financing ,
The report said the country’s public debt is expected to increase from 60% of GDP in 2022 to around 50% in 2021. “Staff expects growth outlook to decline by at least 13.5 percentage points relative to the pre-war baseline, with production declining 10% this year, assuming a quick resolution of the war and adequate donor support,” it said. . This compares to a 6.6% drop in production in 2014, the year Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region, and just under 10% in 2015.
IMF staff said there was widespread uncertainty about the outlook given the intensity of the conflict, and warned that “significantly more pronounced production contractions,” a decline in trade flows as a result of rising losses of physical capital stocks and heavy refugee flows. And there may be less tax. Revenue.
The war – the largest in Europe since World War II – has dealt a massive humanitarian and economic blow, the IMF report said, with rapidly increasing loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure across the country.
It said that Ukrainian authorities continue to serve them. external debt obligation And the country’s payment system remained operational, with banks open and mostly liquid.
It said authorities had implemented appropriate emergency measures to stabilize markets and the economy, but downside risks were “extremely high” and the country faced large financial and external financing gaps.
Ukraine’s alternate executive director at the IMF, Vladislav Rashkovan, told the IMF’s board that Ukrainian officials were in broad agreement with the IMF staff’s assessment of the economic situation, underscoring the need for more financial support.
He said the liquidity buffers adopted after the Russian invasion were sufficient to finance expenditures and defray liabilities, with most Ukrainian companies still paying taxes and some even making advance payments to support the budget.
In his statement, Rashkovan said Ukraine has spent the equivalent of $1.4 billion on servicing and repayment of its foreign currency public debt since the start of the war.
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var prev_content_height = $(content_selector).height();
//$(function() {
var layout = $(content_selector);
var st = 0;
///});
}
}
});
/*}
};*/
})(jQuery);