World

How Afghanistan has once again become a happy hunting ground for the Taliban

June 30, 2021
Bharat Times English News

Intelligence agencies in the United States believe that the Afghan government may collapse At least six months after the total withdrawal of US troops from the country.

Such an assessment certainly raises concerns for key stakeholders in the international community and Afghanistan’s neighbors, at a time when the Taliban is spreading widely across northern provinces, capturing districts at a time, and killing and captives. Collecting US-supplied weapons and equipment from soldiers.

The Taliban has made steady progress since US and allied troops began withdrawing from Afghanistan on May 1. The US has a deadline that will see all of its troops home by September 11, which will mark the 20th The anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. This can upset the balance of power not only within Afghanistan but also across Asia. Currently, the Afghan government can only claim full control over its capital, Kabul and some neighboring districts.

This author spoke to two counter-terrorism experts, Faran Jeffery, Deputy Director and Head of the South Asia Desk on Terrorism at the ITCT (Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism), and Associate Research Fellow at Nanyang Technological Abdul Basit University, Singapore.

Mapping the Taliban Advance

Long before the Taliban marched towards Kabul, there was an increase in donations to them in Balochistan and other border areas of Pakistan. According to reportsAfghan Taliban fighters live with coal miners in the nearby mountains and come to the market area every Friday to demand 5,000-10,000 Pakistani rupees (INR 2,500-5,000) from shopkeepers.

Heavy fighting has been reported in Kandahar, Baglan and Kunduj and thousands of families have fled their homes from these areas. The Taliban also occupies a major border crossing with Tajikistan and now claims to control 40 percent, or 157, of Afghanistan’s total 398 districts.

Fierce fighting is taking place in another 157 districts, while government rule is limited to only 84 districts, mostly in central Afghanistan. However, there is no concrete way to verify such numbers, as many regions frequently change hands between Taliban and Afghan forces. But they also uncover a frightening truth that nearly a third of Afghanistan’s population now lives under Taliban rule.

Abdul Basit says that although it is true that the Taliban is infiltrating, a lot of news at present is propaganda in nature. He says reports of Afghan forces are not enough to recover lost ground.

Taliban strategy

After the complete withdrawal of American troops, the Taliban may launch a massive attack. Farhan Jeffrey says, “Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the Taliban emir has not yet ordered the capture of provincial capitals, but his statement suggests that this may change once the US military withdrawal is fully completed.” is.”

Basit says, “The Taliban are pulling out Afghan forces and looking for weak spots in their defences, resulting in the retreat of Afghan forces from some districts to strengthen their defence. Have not tried to capture the big city, but they are trying to weaken the Afghan forces.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and members of his government have repeatedly urged the Taliban to declare a nationwide ceasefire. In contrast, however, attacks have actually increased across the country. The lack of NATO air support for Afghan forces has encouraged the Taliban to conduct more raids.

Even though the Taliban have captured several districts in Afghanistan, the chances of a total victory so far are slim. However, they are strong in the game of optics. On several occasions, Afghan forces quickly retake key areas, but the Taliban’s progress always garnered much media attention. The Taliban have dedicated social media accounts that stream real-time visuals of the newly occupied territories.

On the other hand, infighting and lack of coordination between various organs of the Afghan government has made things worse for Kabul.

Islamic State Factor

In addition to the Taliban, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has been trying to expand its influence for quite some time. Small armed organizations and some old chieftains also want their share.

Jeffrey says, “In a recent issue of the al-Naba newsletter, ISIS stated very clearly that its war in Afghanistan would continue even after the full withdrawal of US troops. The ISKP recently announced its ‘economic war’ in the country. It has claimed several attacks against electric pylons in Afghanistan as part of its attacks against Afghan soldiers in Nangarhar during fighting between government forces and the Taliban.

“The ISKP has also launched attacks against the Taliban and its attacks are expected to increase in the coming months. Similarly, there are other terror groups, from al-Qaeda to anti-China Uighur militants, who all want to take advantage of the chaos in the country,” Jeffrey said.

Basit agreed that the ISKP could be a mere force at the moment as they have around 3,000 fighter aircraft, which is not enough to make significant inroads. But he warns that ISIS-inspired radicals may find refuge in areas of Afghanistan. It is important to note that many Indian ISIS sympathizers have managed to join the ISKP in the remote hills of Afghanistan.

How are Afghan forces coping with this threat?

Afghan commandos trained and equipped by US and NATO troops are struggling in their fight against the Taliban. They are trying their best and have conducted several night raids in the last two months.

In parallel, the concerned government has launched a “national mobilization” program aimed at preparing local volunteers to fight the Taliban. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani met with former anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban leaders and warlords to rally for a united front. This is seen as a blatant failure of the Afghan government and its over-reliance on US and NATO forces.

In many places, Afghan forces have surrendered to the Taliban. Jeffrey attributed this to three issues.

First, the war strategy of the Afghan government. “The war strategy of the Afghan government so far has been to spare the districts, avoid large casualties, and focus on protecting the provincial capitals,” he says.

Second, the low morale of the forces due to the US withdrawal.

And third, the controversial decision to arm civilians and warlords. “The government’s reliance on militias continues to backfire because many of these militias very easily switch loyalties. The recent massacre of Special Forces soldiers in Faryab happened because the government had announced ahead of time that Dawtabad district had been recaptured. Therefore, the troops landing there were not expected to be greeted by dozens of heavily armed Taliban fighters. Such blunders have caused unnecessary casualties that could have been avoided,” Jeffrey said.

The resurgence of the Taliban has already seen thousands of civilians suffer. Last month, an explosion outside a girls’ school in Kabul killed at least 68 people, most of them young girls aged 11-15. The Taliban has also been attacking medical workers who administered the Kovid vaccine. ISKP has also been carrying out attacks in its areas of influence.

Basit said, “The Taliban are playing a kind of war, which involves grabbing as much territory as possible to have better bargaining power, when they eventually reach the point of negotiating with the Afghan government or the international community. “

Did the Doha Peace Accord Go Wrong?

The US is looking to establish a new base for its ISR operations (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) in one of its neighboring countries. Given their current base and proximity to the Taliban hideout, Pakistan may be the best option. But Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has said he would “absolutely not” allow the US to establish the hideout. Other options are to go to Central Asian countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, the strong Russian influence in these areas can be a deterrent.

In February last year, the US signed a peace deal with the Taliban in Doha, “the deal gave the Taliban more than anyone could have imagined.” It encouraged the Taliban and they saw it as a victory,” Jeffrey said, adding that the US was finding it difficult to justify a prolonged military presence in Afghanistan to its people.

Basit feels that even if the US leaves Afghanistan after five years, the situation will remain the same as it is today. “America was always going to go. It was a question of when and not,” he said.

How does Pakistan, India fit in?

Experts believe that Pakistan is in a difficult position. “If the Taliban comes to power, the slightest influence of Pakistan on it will be in jeopardy. The Taliban will move their leaders and families to Afghanistan, and they will largely build relations with other countries, including India, on their own terms. If Afghanistan descends into a civil war, Pakistan will also face a refugee spillover,” says Jeffrey.

Basit, on the other hand, feels that a strong Taliban in Afghanistan will strengthen terrorist groups in Pakistan and PoK. He says that the Taliban-controlled Afghan government will also provide great strategic depth to Pakistan and help push India away from Afghanistan.

India, which has played a key role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, has called for a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” led by the United Nations in Afghanistan. It remains to be seen whether India will play a direct role in halting the resurgence of Taliban as its growing influence may encourage other terrorist groups affiliated to it. If some reports are to be believed, India has already started back-channel talks with the Taliban.

A lot of India’s investments and projects are in progress across Afghanistan. These include the construction of the Salma Dam and the recently announced Shahtoot Dam in Kabul. But an exit from the US could provide a valuable opportunity for China to expand its Belt and Road initiative into the regions of Afghanistan. China is Afghanistan’s largest foreign investor.

“India itself will try to fill the void left by the US. The US sees India as its key partner in the region and its policy has always been to encourage India to play a greater role in Afghanistan,” Jeffrey said.

Basit said the Taliban may prefer Pakistan over India because of their excessive dependence on Islamabad. “Most family members of Taliban fighters live in Pakistan. Taliban use Pakistani facilities like hospital They also use Pakistani passport for traveling abroad. So, they will naturally favor Pakistan over India,” he said.

(The author is a Singapore-based open-source intelligence analyst)

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