China’s population shrank last year for the first time in more than six decades, official data showed on Tuesday, as the world’s most populous nation faces a demographic crisis.
The nation of 1.4 billion has seen birth rates slide to a record low as its workforce ages, in a sharp decline analysts warn could pile pressure on economic growth and strained public coffers.
The mainland Chinese population at the end of 2022 was about 1,411,750,000, Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of last year.
The NBS said the number of births stood at 9.56 million, while the number of deaths stood at 10.41 million.
The last time China’s population declined was in the early 1960s, as the country suffered the worst famine in its modern history as a result of the disastrous Mao Zedong agricultural policy known as the Great Leap Forward.
China ended its strict one-child policy – implemented in the 1980s due to fears of overpopulation – in 2016 and begins allowing couples to have three children in 2021.
But it has failed to reverse the demographic decline for a country that has long relied on its vast workforce as a driver of economic growth.
“The population is likely to shrink from here in the coming years,” said Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management.
“China cannot rely on the demographic dividend as a structural driver for economic growth,” he added.
“Economic growth will have to rely more on productivity growth, driven by government policies.”
‘I will not be a mother’
News of the population decline quickly trended on China’s heavily censored internet, prompting some to express fear for the country’s future.
“Without children, the state and the nation have no future,” read a comment on the Twitter-like Weibo service.
Another comment by a well-known “patriot” influencer said, “Having children is also a social responsibility.”
But others pointed to the rising cost of living and the difficulties of raising children in modern China.
“I love my mother, I will not be a mother,” said one.
“No one considers why we don’t want (kids) and don’t want to get married,” said another.
Many local authorities have already introduced measures to encourage couples to have children.
For example, the southern megacity of Shenzhen now offers birth bonuses and pay allowances until a child is three years old.
Couples with their first child automatically receive 3,000 yuan ($444), rising to 10,000 yuan for their third child.
In the country’s east, the city of Jinan has paid a monthly stipend of 600 yuan for couples with a second child since January 1.
“The Chinese people are getting used to smaller families because of decades of one-child policy,” Xiujian Peng, a researcher at Australia’s University of Victoria, told AFP.
“The Chinese government will have to find effective policies to encourage births, otherwise fertility will drop even further,” he said.
‘a real concern’
And analysts argue that much more needs to be done.
“A comprehensive policy package covering childbirth, parenting and education is needed to reduce the cost of raising children,” researcher Peng told AFP.
“The job insecurity of women after giving birth should be specifically addressed.”
Independent demographer He Yafu also pointed to a “decline in the number of women of childbearing age, which fell by five million per year between 2016 and 2021” – a result of population ageing.
According to a study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences updated last year and shared with AFP, the Chinese population could decline by an average of 1.1 percent every year.
According to the most pessimistic projections of that group of demographers, China could have only 587 million inhabitants in 2100, less than half of today’s.
And India It is set to dethrone China as the world’s most populous country this year, according to the United Nations.
“Decreasing and increasing population will be a real concern for China,” Peng said.
“It will have a profound impact on China’s economy from now to 2100.”
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(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed)