First estimate of Meteorological Department: South-west monsoon will be normal for the fourth consecutive year, North India will receive above average rainfall

The India Meteorological Department has released the Southwest Monsoon Forecast for the year 2022. According to the department, the LPA of Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall is likely to be 99% and may decrease or increase by 5%. It is also estimated that monsoon may remain the same across the country.

It will rain again in North India
Above normal rainfall is very likely over northern parts of India and adjoining parts of central India, foothills of Himalayas and parts of northwest India. Less than normal rain has been forecast over many areas of Northeast India, some areas of Northwest India and Southern parts.

The Meteorological Department has made this estimate on the basis of an average of 87 cm in the time period 1971-2020. That is, according to the rain (LPA) in it, it will be from 96% to 104%. For this, the department has used the data received from 4132 railway stations across the country.

Average rainfall decreased by 12 cm in a decade
According to the Meteorological Department’s data, the normal rainfall at All India Level for Southwest Monsoon on 1971-2020 basis is 868.6 mm. Earlier it was 880.6 mm on the basis of 1961-2010. That is, there has been a difference of 12 cm within a decade. Due to which less rain is now considered normal.

Fourth consecutive year of normal monsoon
In 2021, the country received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September. This was the third consecutive year that the country recorded normal or above normal rainfall. Earlier in 2019 and 2020, rainfall was above normal. In this sense, this will be the fourth year when the rainfall has been predicted to be normal. However, the department has announced to release the forecast once again in the last week of May 2022.

La Nina will remain even during monsoon
Currently, La Nia exists in the equatorial Pacific. The department has expressed the possibility of La Nina conditions to continue during monsoon. A few days ago, private agency Skymet had also released the monsoon forecast, although there is a difference of only 1% between these two forecasts.