new Delhi: Go out Elections are not an exact science and they have been known to go well off the mark, although sometimes they get it right. However, they provide something for political parties and the general public to debate and dissect until the actual results come a few days later.
Come on March 10 when the results of the assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand will come. Manipur and Goa has been declared, it will be a decision not only on the political parties that contested the elections but also on opinion polls Those who often make a mistake in reading the mood of the public. Most exit polls have suggested BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh and an AAP triumphed in Punjab.
One of the most talked about ‘correct’ exit polls was in 2014, when most surveyors agreed that the BJP would get the highest numbers ever – a range from a little over 200 to less than 300. 340 seats predicted for NDA And 70 seats for UPA. It was the last laugh when NDA won 334 seats and UPA ended with 60. The BJP took its tally to 282, while the Congress was reduced to 44.
In 2004, when the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government called for early elections, the wisdom he felt and the opinion of the pollsters was that he would return to office. None of the exit polls gave a chance to the Congress. Everyone knows how it turned out.
Most elections had predicted a stellar performance for AAP in Punjab in 2017 as well, but the Congress led by Captain Amarinder Singh emerged as the clear winner. In Uttar Pradesh, where many voters gave the BJP an edge last time, the extent of its victory where it crossed the 300-seat mark was difficult for anyone to predict.
Here is a look at the exit poll predictions for some of the major recent elections:
The extent of the Modi wave of 2014:
The ‘Abki Baar, Modi Sarkar’ wave in the 2014 elections was hard to miss and the UPA slammed from one crisis to another was a clear secret. Most voters gave the BJP an edge, but few came close to predicting the scale of its victory.
The Headlines Today-Cicero poll showed the NDA touching the figure of just 272 seats, while the Times Now-ORG poll showed the BJP-led government close to victory, but with only 257 seats. The CNN-IBN CSDS poll showed the NDA with 276 seats.
It should be mentioned that each survey shows a range rather than a figure with some scope for fluctuation. For example, the range estimated for NDA by Times Now-org was 249-265.
However, the poll that predicted NDA to cross the 300-seat mark was News24-Today’s Chanakya which gave 340 seats to the NDA. And the Modi wave ensured, NDA crossed the 300 mark.
Off the mark in 2017 Punjab elections:
Many pollsters would like to forget this. The C-Voter poll gave AAP 59 to 67 seats, while News X-MRC and Today’s Chanakya polls showed a neck-and-neck battle between the Congress and the AAP. In the final tally, Congress won the state with 77 out of 117 seats, while AAP was left with 20 seats.
2017 Uttar Pradesh Elections – BJP’s Huge Wave Missed in Elections:
Like in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the exit polls predict the victory of the BJP, but not the extent. The Times Now-VMR poll showed the BJP leading with 190 to 210 seats. Other elections indicated a hung parliament. ABP-Lokniti gave BJP 164 to 176 seats while C Voter gave only 161 seats. In actual results, the BJP crossed the 300 mark.
2019 Lok Sabha Elections:
Pollsters had a better day in 2019 as most of them predicted a clear victory for the BJP-led NDA. Polls broadcast by Times Now, India Today and others showed the NDA crossing the 300-seat mark. There were other views that showed the NDA just short of a majority.
2004 Lok Sabha Elections:
Exit polls got it spectacularly wrong in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP went ahead with its ‘India Shining’ campaign. After victories in the state elections of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government quickly dissolved Parliament in the hope of re-election. Exit polls had predicted the BJP-led NDA to get over 240 to 250 seats.
The prevailing debate was whether or not the halfway point of 272 would be violated.
But when the actual results came, the numbers were completely opposite and the Congress and its allies got 216 seats against the estimate of 170 to 205. The BJP only managed to get 187 seats against the estimate of 240 to 250 seats.
2020 Bihar State Puzzle:
Several exit polls showed the RJD-led alliance in Bihar as the favourite, but the BJP-JD(U) alliance proved them wrong and returned to power again. At least two polling agencies, Axis My India Poll and Today’s Chanakya, broadcast on television channels after the polls predicted a clean victory for the RJD-led Grand Alliance. Others showed a tough race, with the Grand Alliance taking the lead.
Not just an Indian event:
The disappearance of pollsters is not a unique phenomenon for India. Many exit polls fail to read the mood in the Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton contest in the United States. It came as a surprise to many when Donald Trump emerged victorious.
What are exit polls and why they can be wrong:
Exit polls are usually conducted through interaction with voters after casting their votes. They are considered more reliable than opinion polls. However, the sample size can often be insufficient and fail to indicate the mood of the constituency or state.
Another reason could be the presence of shy or silent voters who may not be very clear about their choices.
Come on March 10 when the results of the assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand will come. Manipur and Goa has been declared, it will be a decision not only on the political parties that contested the elections but also on opinion polls Those who often make a mistake in reading the mood of the public. Most exit polls have suggested BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh and an AAP triumphed in Punjab.
One of the most talked about ‘correct’ exit polls was in 2014, when most surveyors agreed that the BJP would get the highest numbers ever – a range from a little over 200 to less than 300. 340 seats predicted for NDA And 70 seats for UPA. It was the last laugh when NDA won 334 seats and UPA ended with 60. The BJP took its tally to 282, while the Congress was reduced to 44.
In 2004, when the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government called for early elections, the wisdom he felt and the opinion of the pollsters was that he would return to office. None of the exit polls gave a chance to the Congress. Everyone knows how it turned out.
Most elections had predicted a stellar performance for AAP in Punjab in 2017 as well, but the Congress led by Captain Amarinder Singh emerged as the clear winner. In Uttar Pradesh, where many voters gave the BJP an edge last time, the extent of its victory where it crossed the 300-seat mark was difficult for anyone to predict.
Here is a look at the exit poll predictions for some of the major recent elections:
The extent of the Modi wave of 2014:
The ‘Abki Baar, Modi Sarkar’ wave in the 2014 elections was hard to miss and the UPA slammed from one crisis to another was a clear secret. Most voters gave the BJP an edge, but few came close to predicting the scale of its victory.
The Headlines Today-Cicero poll showed the NDA touching the figure of just 272 seats, while the Times Now-ORG poll showed the BJP-led government close to victory, but with only 257 seats. The CNN-IBN CSDS poll showed the NDA with 276 seats.
It should be mentioned that each survey shows a range rather than a figure with some scope for fluctuation. For example, the range estimated for NDA by Times Now-org was 249-265.
However, the poll that predicted NDA to cross the 300-seat mark was News24-Today’s Chanakya which gave 340 seats to the NDA. And the Modi wave ensured, NDA crossed the 300 mark.
Off the mark in 2017 Punjab elections:
Many pollsters would like to forget this. The C-Voter poll gave AAP 59 to 67 seats, while News X-MRC and Today’s Chanakya polls showed a neck-and-neck battle between the Congress and the AAP. In the final tally, Congress won the state with 77 out of 117 seats, while AAP was left with 20 seats.
2017 Uttar Pradesh Elections – BJP’s Huge Wave Missed in Elections:
Like in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the exit polls predict the victory of the BJP, but not the extent. The Times Now-VMR poll showed the BJP leading with 190 to 210 seats. Other elections indicated a hung parliament. ABP-Lokniti gave BJP 164 to 176 seats while C Voter gave only 161 seats. In actual results, the BJP crossed the 300 mark.
2019 Lok Sabha Elections:
Pollsters had a better day in 2019 as most of them predicted a clear victory for the BJP-led NDA. Polls broadcast by Times Now, India Today and others showed the NDA crossing the 300-seat mark. There were other views that showed the NDA just short of a majority.
2004 Lok Sabha Elections:
Exit polls got it spectacularly wrong in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP went ahead with its ‘India Shining’ campaign. After victories in the state elections of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government quickly dissolved Parliament in the hope of re-election. Exit polls had predicted the BJP-led NDA to get over 240 to 250 seats.
The prevailing debate was whether or not the halfway point of 272 would be violated.
But when the actual results came, the numbers were completely opposite and the Congress and its allies got 216 seats against the estimate of 170 to 205. The BJP only managed to get 187 seats against the estimate of 240 to 250 seats.
2020 Bihar State Puzzle:
Several exit polls showed the RJD-led alliance in Bihar as the favourite, but the BJP-JD(U) alliance proved them wrong and returned to power again. At least two polling agencies, Axis My India Poll and Today’s Chanakya, broadcast on television channels after the polls predicted a clean victory for the RJD-led Grand Alliance. Others showed a tough race, with the Grand Alliance taking the lead.
Not just an Indian event:
The disappearance of pollsters is not a unique phenomenon for India. Many exit polls fail to read the mood in the Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton contest in the United States. It came as a surprise to many when Donald Trump emerged victorious.
What are exit polls and why they can be wrong:
Exit polls are usually conducted through interaction with voters after casting their votes. They are considered more reliable than opinion polls. However, the sample size can often be insufficient and fail to indicate the mood of the constituency or state.
Another reason could be the presence of shy or silent voters who may not be very clear about their choices.