The dollar gave back earlier gains against the euro but strengthened against the yen on Friday after it beat economists’ forecasts for a rise in jobs and wage growth for April but saw a decline in jobs for March.
Employers added 253,000 jobs, beating economists’ forecast for a gain of 180,000. US median hourly earnings grew at an annual rate of 4.4%, which was higher than the expected 4.2% increase.
But the March data was also revised lower to add 165,000 jobs instead of the 236,000 reported earlier.
“The headline number probably isn’t as strong as it looks when looking at the backward revisions,” said Vasily Serebryakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York.
He said the initial gain in the greenback was in part due to investors who were shorting the currency, or betting it would fall, covering their positions.
The dollar has fallen from last September’s 20-year high as investors adjust to the prospect that the Federal Reserve is at or near the end of its tightening cycle, while peers including the European Central Bank have turned more dovish.
Investors are pricing in the possibility that the Fed will cut rates in the second half of this year. However, while the economy is slowing, there are still some forces that are making investors hesitant to get too bearish on the US currency for now.
“It’s going to be hard to get much momentum in the near term until we have a more clear directional signal from US data,” Serebryakov said. “The resolution for us is ultimately continued weak US data and ultimately a weaker dollar and a more dovish Fed.”
Fed funds futures traders are looking for a cut of about 75 basis points through the end of the year. The Fed on Wednesday raised rates by 25 basis points from 5% to 5.25% and dropped the language of its policy statement, saying it “anticipated” that further rate hikes would be needed.
The dollar index rose to a session high of 101.77 before falling back to 101.19, down 0.13% for the day. The euro fell to $1.0967 before jumping up 0.11% to $1.1026.
The greenback rose 0.40% to 134.79 Japanese yen.
Technical analysts at JP Morgan, including Jason Hunter, noted on Friday that there is bearish divergence on the daily EUR/USD chart and the single currency’s gains have stalled, but the rally is “not conclusively over.”
The bank said that if the euro sees sustained weakness below the $1.0909 and $1.0831 levels, it would confirm a short-term trend reversal, while a drop below $1.0762 “would mean that a more significant trend reversal is underway.” “
The euro also fell to 87.11 pence against sterling on Friday, its lowest level since 20 December.
Consumer price data due next week is the next major US economic focus.
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Currency Quote Price at 3:00 PM (1900 GMT)
Details RIC Last US Close PCT Change YTD PCT High Bid Low Bid
last change
Session
Dollar Index 101.1900 101.3400 -0.13% -2.222% +101.7700 +101.1100
EUR/USD $1.1026 $1.1014 +0.11% +2.90% +$1.1048 +$1.0967
USD/JPY 134.7900 134.2650 +0.40% +2.82% +135.1150 +133.8800
EUR/JPY 148.63 147.87 +0.51% +5.93% +148.7000 +147.6900
Dollar/Swiss 0.8904 0.8859 +0.51% -3.70% +0.8972 +0.8836
Sterling/Dollar $1.2641 $1.2575 +0.54% +4.54% +$1.2652 +$1.2559
Dollar/Canadian 1.3373 1.3540 -1.24% -1.30% +1.3539 +1.3371
Aus/Dollar $0.6755 $0.6694 +0.92% -0.90% +$0.6757 +$0.6689
Euro/Swiss 0.9815 0.9756 +0.60% -0.79% +0.9849 +0.9754
Euro/Sterling 0.8722 0.8759 -0.42% -1.38% +0.8767 +0.8714
NZ $0.6301 $0.6279 +0.36% -0.76% +$0.6316 +$0.6265
dollar/dollar
Dollar/Norway 10.5610 10.6910 -1.22% +7.61% +10.6870 +10.5610
EUR/NORWAY 11.6447 11.7663 -1.03% +10.97% +11.7903 +11.6400
Dollar/Sweden 10.1527 10.2431 -0.75% -2.45% +10.2621 +10.1510
Euro/Sweden 11.1960 11.2807 -0.75% +0.41% +11.2945 +11.1920
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