The latest spate of killings centered in Kashmir in the past few weeks may be sudden but not surprising.
Following the immediate, acrimonious peace that arose from the abrogation of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019 and bifurcation of the erstwhile state into two union territories; The later arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020; And heavy counter-terrorist operations, terrorist groups operating in the region are trying to revive themselves and assert their relevance by creating maximum impact with minimum cost.
The most effective way to do this was to choose easy, harmless targets at their will. More than a dozen killings in the past week have shocked the Kashmiri population and migrants working in the Valley. He has also found considerable space in military discourses and prime time.
The attacks were also discussed between top government officials in at least three high-level meetings since last week – the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and intelligence officers on Thursday and Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday and Jammu and Kashmir’s Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha. Another high level government meeting was held on Monday evening on the security situation in the area.
The terrorists – influenced by the factors mentioned above – have thus managed to garner much more attention through these attacks than they were.
In the last five years, there is no clear trend on civilian killings in the Valley in terms of numbers. Official data shows that the numbers have remained fairly consistent since 2015, with the exceptions of 2017 and 2018, when it increased significantly.
According to the data, 33 people have died in 2020 so far, 37 in 2021 and 15 this year. A total of 52 civilians have been injured in such attacks in 2020, 62 in 2021 and 85 in 2022. Although there have been sporadic targeted killings of civilians in the past, many civilian deaths have also been the result of collateral damage during difficult counter-terrorist operations.
What sets the latest developments apart is that terrorists have mostly indulged in targeted killings of civilians, Kashmiris and outsiders – including three minority Hindus – against routine attacks on security forces with the intention of terrorizing civilians. .
Timing of attacks is also important. They come during the peak tourism season in Kashmir and before the Amarnath Yatra, when thousands of tourists and pilgrims from across the country visit the valley.
What does the data say?
The latest official data available with the security forces shows that the incidents of terrorist incidents have almost doubled till the first week of June this year as compared to the same period last year.
There were 37 terrorist-initiated incidents in 2021 till June 3, which has increased to 68 in the same period this year. In all, there were 142, 131 and 68 terrorist-inspired incidents in 2020, 2021 and 2022 till the first week of June.
This data tells a story when seen with the increase in the number of terrorists killed by security forces since 2020.
While only 49 terrorists were killed in 2021 till June 3, this year the number has almost doubled to 94 in the same period.
This reflects an increase in terrorist incidents, which, among other factors, can be attributed to an increase in the number of terrorists eliminated in anti-terrorist operations. A total of 221, 181 and 94 terrorists were killed in 2020, 2021 and 2022 till the first week of June.
Why the latest round of attacks?
Several factors, or a combination of them, are important for understanding the latest spread of targeted civilian killings.
Months of inaction induced by the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic and an increase in anti-terrorist operations leading to terrorist killings are among the possible factors prompting these terrorist groups to act to show their relevance .
Many analysts believe that some developmental activities in the Valley in the last two years, fear among the militants of minority Hindus settled in the Valley and changes in religious demography amid the latest narratives on the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits of the 1990s were also putting pressure on them. could. On the militants, leading to incidents.
Alternatively, crackdown on terror funding and cross-border directives to this effect could be contributing factors in boiling the pot to send a message, I gathered during my interactions with several security officials. This is also evident from the pistols and grenades used by the terrorists in the killings, as is the case with the AK-47s used in terror attacks on security forces.
Official data shows that 43, 30 and 29 of the terrorists killed so far in 2020, 2021 and 2022 were foreign terrorists.
Proactive steps needed to allay apprehensions
The incidents have instilled fear in the minds of both locals and outsiders. Clearly, it is not possible for security forces to provide security to every individual, but as they intensify crackdown on terrorist groups, the government can take proactive steps to allay the fear through substantial public outreach activities. .
An effective government message would also affect the hybrid terrorists emerging in the Valley – who have come to the fore in the latest killings – who are not individuals with criminal records but strong enough to carry out an attack before getting back to their regular lives. are radicalized. ,
The arrest of five such terrorists of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) group last month, three of whom were involved in the killing of a sarpanch in Baramulla district, is one such example.
Terrorist incidents may temporarily affect private investment in the sector to some extent, but it is important to accelerate and maintain the pace of government projects. Apart from ensuring proper representation of local Kashmiris in politics and higher bureaucracy, it remains a part of the political solution.
The killings have affected one and all – both migrants and outsiders as well as locals. While outsiders and Kashmiri Pandits fear coming to the Valley for livelihood or resettlement, local Kashmiris fear a backlash when they travel to other parts of the country.
This is the only truth. Any further narrative continuing at this point will only aid terrorists and add to the turmoil in the Valley. I
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