Experts say that the country is currently in the grip of a third wave of COVID-19 and will start declining from the beginning of next month.
IIT Kanpur Professor Manindra Agrawal, who is tracking the COVID-19 curve in the country using the SUTRA model, says that India will peak around January 15 in cases of COVID-19 infection and maximum cases in big cities likely to appear. Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata.
Currently, Delhi is reporting over 22,000 cases per day and as per the study done by IIT Professor, the number of cases will reach its peak to around 40,000 cases per day which is expected to hit by mid-January .
When the cases subside, Professor Agarwal says, “We expect the decline to be equally sharp and if the peak hits in January, the wave will be over by mid-March.” His study disagrees that election rallies are a super-spreader of the virus. “If you only look at election rallies as a reason for spreading, it is wrong. Many things are called spreading and election rallies are one of them. And if one believes that just by stopping election rallies, you Will stop the spread is not right,” he told news agency ANI.
A research study on the COVID-19 surge by researchers from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) has corroborated Professor Agarwal’s study which sheds light on the peak and fall of COVID-19. As per reports, IISc and ISI researchers claim that the current spike in COVID-19 cases across the country will start to subside next month, though it will vary from state to state. He has also said that the current curve of covid By March or April, the cases will come down and during the peak, more than 8 lakh cases will be reported daily in the country.
On hospital requirements, which wreaked havoc during the second wave, these researchers have said that in the worst-case scenario, only if 100% of the country’s total population is susceptible to COVID, the hospital requirement can go up to 4 lakh per person. can. days and ICU requirement may cross 20,000.
On the inevitable rigors of the third wave, Himanshu Sikka told the media, “The evidence on omicron based community transmission is increasing. In the next few weeks we may see a dramatic increase in numbers and reach one million positive cases per day. the end of the month.” He is associated with IPE Global, an international healthcare development consulting company.
“A third wave is imminent but the combination of past exposure, climbing vaccination coverage rates, and low reported severity of omicron infections should result in a more silent problem than was seen during the second wave. I see no reason Professor Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Washington-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, has told the media that the omicron-driven wave in India will be more dangerous than in other countries.
On the hospital front, India is reportedly better equipped and prepared than it was during the second wave.
Several other experts have also noted a drop in COVID cases since February and a sharp peak around mid-January.
to prevent the spread of coronavirusState governments in the country have imposed restrictions on the movement of people during weekends and holidays.
India on Thursday recorded 2,47,417 new COVID cases, the highest since May. The country’s Omicron tally now stands at 5,488.
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