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- BJP: Himachal Pradesh Election Result Counting 2022 Live Updates; Jairam Thakur Narendra Modi | Himachal BJP AAP Congress Winner MLA List
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The results of 68 assembly seats in Himachal Pradesh will come today. Will the 37-year-old tradition continue in the state or a new history will be created, it will be clear by this afternoon. After 1985, no party has been able to repeat its government in the state. Then there was the Congress government and Virbhadra Singh was the Chief Minister. This time everyone’s eyes are on whether the trend of changing the government on the mountain will continue or BJP will be able to change this custom with the help of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face.
7 out of 11 ministers stuck in a tightrope
There has also been a trend of 45 to 75% ministers losing elections every time in Himachal Pradesh. This time also, 7 out of 11 ministers of Jairam Thakur are stuck in a neck-to-neck fight. Even the seats of two ministers were changed. Among them, Urban Development Minister Suresh Bhardwaj was fielded from Kasumpti in place of Shimla Urban seat and Forest Minister Rakesh Pathania from Fatehpur in place of Noorpur seat in Kangra district.
Nearly half the ministers lost in the last 4 elections
If you look at the record of the last four elections, almost half or more of the ministers have lost the elections every time. In the 2017 elections, 5 out of 11 ministers of the Congress CM Virbhadra Singh cabinet lost the elections. In 2012, 4 out of 10 ministers of CM Prem Kumar Dhumal lost the elections in the BJP government. In 2007, Virbhadra Singh held assembly elections a year early but 6 out of 10 ministers in his cabinet lost their seats. Similarly, in 2003, 6 out of 11 ministers in BJP’s CM Prem Kumar Dhumal’s cabinet could not win.
BJP’s CM face Dhumal lost to his own disciple in 2017
In the 2017 elections, Prem Kumar Dhumal was defeated by Rajendra Singh Rana by about 2 thousand votes.
In the 2017 elections, the BJP won a clear majority by winning 44 out of 68 seats, but its chief minister, Prem Kumar Dhumal himself was defeated. In Sujanpur seat of Hamirpur district, Dhumal was defeated by his own ‘Hanuman’ Rajendra Singh Rana by 1 thousand 919 votes. It was the first assembly election of Rana, who left the BJP and joined the Congress just before the elections. Dhumal had then left his traditional Hamirpur seat to contest from Sujanpur. This was Dhumal’s first defeat in an election after 1984. Dhumal is the father of Union minister Anurag Thakur.
Now understand the election math of Himachal with the figures of exit polls…
Equal contest in Bhaskar’s exit polls
According to the exit poll of Dainik Bhaskar, Congress can get 30 to 38 seats in Himachal. For a majority in the 68-seat Himachal assembly, any party needs 35 seats. BJP is also not far behind Congress. It can get 25 to 33 seats. Independents are expected to get 1 to 5 seats. Independents can play the role of kingmaker in case Congress or BJP does not get absolute majority after counting. Read full news…
BJP close to majority in poll of polls
According to the 8 exit poll surveys that came two days ago, Himachal has been told to have a close fight between the BJP and the Congress. In these surveys, the BJP is seen between 32 and 40 ie close to majority. However, in four surveys, the Congress party is also seen somewhere around the majority mark. This time, 412 candidates are in the fray for 68 assembly seats in Himachal, but the main contest here is between the BJP and the Congress.
Overall, Congress is getting 27 to 40 seats in all these surveys. At the same time, the account of Aam Aadmi Party is not visible here. Overall, out of these 8 surveys, only two agencies have shown your account opening.
According to the poll of polls i.e. the average figure of these eight surveys, this time BJP does not seem to get 33 seats, Congress 26, others 2 and Aam Aadmi Party. In the 2017 Assembly, out of 68 seats, the BJP won 44 and the Congress 21. Others had lost three seats.
The exit polls of 2017 were close to the estimates.
In the 2017 elections, the BJP had won 44 of the 68 seats in the Himachal Assembly. While the Congress had secured 21 seats. The BJP had made Jairam Thakur the Chief Minister. Then 6 agencies had predicted BJP to form the government with majority in their survey. This guess proved to be correct.
Interesting facts…
- In terms of voters, the result of Lahaul Spiti, the smallest seat of the state, will come first.
- Chief Minister Jairam Thakur’s seat Seraj Assembly result is expected to be the most delayed.
- In terms of voters, the result of the biggest reconciliation seat is also expected to come in the end.
- Himachal Pradesh is the home state of BJP National President JP Nadda. Nadda comes from Bilaspur district where BJP is in direct contest with Congress on 4 seats.
- In Seraj, the seat of CM Jairam Thakur, he is pitted against Chetram Thakur of Congress. Thakur’s victory is sure, but people’s eyes will be on the winning margin.
What next after victory?
Jairam or Anurag who will be CM in BJP
The biggest question is that if the BJP wins the election again, who will be the Chief Minister? However, there is no discussion so far about the face in the party. Therefore, if the BJP wins, it is almost certain that Jairam Thakur will become the Chief Minister. However, there is talk of making Union Minister Anurag Thakur the Chief Minister. But it seems less likely.
Congress chief minister in 6 contenders for the post
This is the first assembly election in Himachal after the death of Virbhadra Singh. In his absence, even before the results are out, half a dozen leaders within the Congress are calling themselves contenders for the post of CM. These include Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu from Nadaun seat, Mukesh Agnihotri from Haroli, Kaul Singh Thakur from Drang, Ramlal Thakur from Srinaina Deviji, Colonel Dhaniram Shandil from Solan and Asha Kumari from Dalhousie.
