Will Omicron Fuel Full-Blow Third Wave Or Mild Infection? Experts note ‘inevitable’ as cases rise

All over the country, the cases instigated by them omicron version of the novel coronavirus Israel is on the rise with becoming the third country to report the death toll due to the latest version on Wednesday. Although experts back home are saying that a third wave fueled by Omicron in India is inevitable, it could be less severe than the previous wave that wreaked havoc in the country. Experts have said that the third wave of Kovid-19 is likely to hit India by the beginning of the new year.

Read more | Omicron’s death reported in 3 countries so far; Experts warn of more deaths See the list

India has so far reported 213 cases of the Omicron variant across 15 states and union territories, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Wednesday. Of these, 90 patients have been cured or migrated. Delhi reported maximum 57 cases of the new variant, followed by Maharashtra 54, Telangana 24, Karnataka 19, Rajasthan 18, Kerala 15 and Gujarat 14.

The data also said that India recorded 6,317 new coronavirus infections taking the total to 3,47,58,481, while the active cases came down to 78,190, the lowest in 575 days. The death toll has risen to 4,78,325 with 318 fresh deaths.

RT price hike in some states

On Tuesday, tweeting about the increase in RT value, or the effective reproduction value of coronavirus, in some states, epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu listed states whose RT price increased on December 19 as compared to December 13. . An RT value of 1 means one patient. Can spread disease to another person. Dr. Babu said, “States with increase in RT values ​​on December 19 as compared to December 13 are Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Odisha, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Manipur and Nagaland. India’s effective RT as of December 19 is 0.89.”

He also talked about the increase in the weekly average percentage of daily Covid-19 cases in some states. He tweeted, “Weekly average % increase in daily cases in these states as compared to last week average.

Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra. The highest percentage change was observed in UP and UK. WARNING: Dependent on monitoring and individual testing rates.”

How will the graph of Kovid look in the coming days?

According to experts, both these factors were indicators of how the graph of Kovid would look in the next one month. But he also said that there is nothing to panic so far.

According to a report published in times of IndiaDr Shashank Joshi, member of the State COVID Task Force, said: “The third wave seemed distant a few months ago, but the emergence of the variant spreading five times faster than the delta has raised the possibility of an outbreak of the cluster and the third wave. wave wave.”

The Center on Tuesday alerted states and union territories that the new variant was three times more permeable than the highly contagious delta variant. In a letter, Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan advised states to activate war rooms, analyze all trends and surges, no matter how small, and continue to take proactive action at the district or local level.

Read more | 3 times more permeable than Omicron Delta, Center asks states to activate war chambers

Dr Vishal Rao, member of the genomic monitoring committee in Karnataka, where Omicron was reported for the first time in India, said there were two possibilities with the new variant: a full-blown third wave or a mild infection due to high vaccination coverage.

in a report published by Indian ExpressDr Rao said that there has been a global increase in the cases of Kovid-19 due to Omicron, but it is under control in India. “There are two possible outcomes in the future. If the number of omicron cases exceeds the critical threshold, we will have widespread community transmission and a full-blown third wave. With the numbers and vaccinations increasing in the second half of 2021, we have added protection against Omicron and we may not see the kind of spike that other countries are currently witnessing,” the report quoted them as saying. quoted.

what is the center saying

“Based on current scientific evidence, VOCs (version of concern) are at least 3 times more transmissible than omicron delta VOCs. Furthermore, delta VOCs still exist in different parts of the country. Hence, local and district There is a need for even more foresight, data analysis, dynamic decision making and strict and prompt control action at the level of the state.Decisions at the state/UT and district level are very important, the letter sent by the Union Health Secretary to the States/UTs is required. Must be quick and focused.

The Center has asked states to focus on “strategic areas of intervention”, including prevention, testing, tracking, surveillance, clinical management, vaccination and adhering to COVID-appropriate norms. It has also asked the states to strengthen the health infrastructure in case of sudden surge. and stressed on increasing bed capacity, ambulances, “mechanisms for seamless transfer of patients, availability and operational readiness of oxygen equipment, a buffer stock of medicines”.

Slowdown in Covid cases in India?

The daily increase in new infections in the last 55 days was recorded below 15,000. The Health Ministry said that active cases comprise 0.22 per cent of the total infections, the lowest since March 2020, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has further improved to 98.4 per cent, the highest since March 2020. is more. There has been a decline of 907 cases in the active Kovid-19 caseload in a 24-hour period.

While 87 countries have reported more cases in the last two weeks than in the last 14 days, India has, in contrast, reported a record-less number of cases.

One reason for the low number of cases could be that the flagship variant in India is still Delta and not Omron. On 18 December the Indian Council of Medical Research said that Delta is still the dominant strain prevalent in the country and Omicron has not yet replaced it, meaning that current COVID-19 measures and vaccines will remain in effect.

(with PTI inputs)

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