What’s next in Maharashtra crisis: Shinde faction from Supreme Court till July 12; Government will stay or go, understand in 4 questions

On Monday, the Supreme Court held a two-hour hearing on the political crisis in Maharashtra. After the hearing, the court issued notice to Maharashtra Police, Central Government, Shiv Sena and Deputy Speaker. In the hearing, the court has given some relief to the Shinde faction, while the court refused to say anything on the demand for floor test.

The rebel side has got five major reliefs from the interim order. First- Security to MLAs and their families. Second- 14 days to reply on the disqualification case. Third- The role of the Deputy Speaker is in question after the notice of the Supreme Court.

Fourth- Notice against Ajay Chaudhary, leader of the legislature party appointed by Uddhav Thackeray. Fifth- Most importantly, instead of Mumbai, the center of the battle for power was shifted to Delhi, the capital of the country. The recognition of the rebel group and the majority of the government will be decided by the speaker and the assembly.

In such a situation, the question arises that what will happen next in the political crisis of Maharashtra? Let’s understand this with 4 questions and their answers…

1. What will happen to Deputy Speaker Narhari Jirwal?
The Speaker’s post in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly is vacant. In such a situation, all eyes are on Deputy Speaker Narhari Jirwal. Recently, the rebel MLAs had given a notice of no confidence motion against Jirwal, which was rejected by Jirwal citing the reason for not giving it properly.

The Supreme Court has remarked during the hearing that when Jirwal himself does not have a trust vote, how will he decide to cancel the membership. The court has also directed him to file an affidavit. Under Article 179C of the Constitution, there is a procedure to remove the Speaker or the Deputy Speaker, but for that 14 days notice is required.

The Speaker’s post in the Maharashtra Assembly is vacant since last year, due to which the Deputy Speaker is looking after all the work.

Under Article 181 he cannot remain involved in decisions during that time. If the court directs to obtain a trust vote in the next hearing, then the vehicle may get stuck. There are two options in these circumstances.

First, under Article 178, a new speaker should be elected in the assembly. Second, under Article 180, the governor can appoint a pro tem speaker, but the pro tem speaker will not have the constitutional power to determine the disqualification of legislators.

Therefore, it is necessary to decide on the appointment of a new speaker or the no-confidence motion of the deputy speaker. In such a situation, if there is a situation of floor test, then the governor can elect the pro tem speaker.

2. What about the cancellation notice of MLAs?
The Supreme Court has directed to maintain the status quo till July 12 on the notice of the MLAs. The next hearing in the court is on July 11. If the Deputy Speaker gets relief in the court, then the danger on these MLAs will increase. On the other hand, if the Deputy Speaker does not get relief, the whole matter will go to the floor test.

Disqualification notices were issued to 16 MLAs of Eknath Shinde faction, on which the court has got relief.

3. Shinde faction will get separate recognition in the assembly?
The Supreme Court has directed the Maharashtra Police to provide security to the 39 rebel MLAs and their families. Till now the Shinde faction was only claiming that it has a two-thirds majority, but now a list of 39 MLAs has been given in the court, which has been asked to give security. After this, the claim for recognition of a separate faction can increase.

Under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution i.e. the Anti-Defection Act, there is a condition to merge two-thirds of the MLAs into another party, but the Shinde faction claims to be the real Shiv Sena in the name of supporting two-thirds of the MLAs. Used to be. There are also two things in granting recognition. One separate faction in the assembly and the other a separate faction in the party. The matter of two factions in the party will go to the Election Commission, while the recognition of a separate faction in the assembly is given by the Speaker / Deputy Speaker.

Shinde and Uddhav’s fight has come on the streets. Shiv Sena workers are protesting from place to place.

4. What will be the impact on the Uddhav government?
Till July 11, the threat from the Uddhav government has been averted for the time being. Till the hearing, the government will try to persuade the rebel MLAs. On Monday, the portfolios of 9 ministers were snatched from the Chief Minister’s Office. The most interesting thing in this whole matter is that the Uddhav government is not sacking the rebel ministers from the cabinet.

On the other hand the Chief Minister and the MLAs who rebelled against the government are not resigning from the cabinet, while living in Guwahati. There are many constitutional hurdles regarding the recognition of the rebel faction and the formation of a new government, but it is clear from this development that the Uddhav government has lost its majority.

If the rebel faction does not get a chance to form the government, then in the name of constitutional crisis, President’s rule can also be imposed under Article 356 in the state later.

(The author is a senior Supreme Court lawyer.)