US and Russian foreign ministers will hold talks in Geneva on Friday, with a US official saying “diplomacy is probably not dead” in efforts to prevent a new Russian attack on Ukraine.
With a White House warning that such an attack could happen “at any time”, the US Secretary of State, Tony Blinken, will fly to Kiev on Wednesday and a Russian meeting with Ukraine’s government and European allies in Berlin on Thursday. From. Will consult first. Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov. It comes as NATO offered Russia a new round of talks.
“The fact that Secretary Blinken and Secretary of State Lavrov agreed to meet in Geneva on Friday shows that perhaps diplomacy is not over,” a senior State Department official said. “We’ll definitely know a lot more after that engagement on Friday.”
Late last week, after three rounds of discussions in Europe with no progress, a senior Russian official suggested that diplomacy may be at an impasse. Since then, with the movement of Russian troops and heavy weapons, tensions have continued to rise from the Far East to the West and Belarus.
“We are now at a stage where Russia can attack Ukraine at any time,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.
A US official said NATO had not been informed of Russian military exercises in Belarus, noting that the number of troops was “a higher number than we expected in relation to a normal exercise”.
“What this shows is an increased ability for Russia to launch this attack – increased opportunities, increased avenues, increased routes,” the official said, questioning why Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko – why he was weakened by popular opposition to his rule – had a great deal of control over the event.
“The question is: where do their rights end at this point and where does the Kremlin begin? And it’s very uncertain.”
A senior State Department official said: “The Russian military plans to begin activities several weeks before the military offensive, which we are closely watching and we estimate could be between mid-January and mid-February. ” Is.”
On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, echoed US claims that “intelligence operatives had a significant Russian presence inside Ukraine” and that it was “absolutely possible” that they were involved in “incidents, accidents, false flag operations”. Will be included. , were planning.
NATO has invited Russia for a new series of talks to discuss European security and arms control as the coalition scrambles to avoid a possible Russian attack on Ukraine.
“The main task now is to prevent a military attack on Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“We are ready to listen to their concerns but we will not compromise on fundamentals. We must have a clear view of the prospects for progress, but … will do everything possible to reach an agreement.”
A senior European official confirmed that the coming month is seen as the most likely time for a Russian offensive if Vladimir Putin decides to strike.
“We all have the same assessment as the ground is expected to become very muddy after mid-February,” the official said. “For a highly capable military, winter is really of great help.”
Blinken will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior officials in Kiev on Wednesday. In Berlin, the Secretary of State will meet with members of the new German coalition government, as well as representatives of the “Trans-Atlantic Quad”, which also includes the UK and France. Those talks will focus on preparing for the Lavrov meeting and working on a concrete response to any Russian attack.
The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has not said for certain whether the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany will be suspended, and there are reports that SWIFT may threaten to cut Russia off the international payment system. It could pass silently.
A senior European diplomat said no final decision had been taken on Swift.
“The objective is really to constrain and restrict Russia’s access to the global economy, so all those things – access to capital, access to banking – they remain on the table,” the diplomat said. “They have varying degrees of difficulty and vulnerability, so we need to properly assess what Russians can do in response to each of those measures, and then work out which ones are most likely to be effective.” Is.” , Round.”
In Kiev, Blinken is due to speak to US embassy staff about their contingency plans in the event of a Russian attack.
“We are making general contingency plans for our embassy and US citizens in Ukraine, as we always do,” a State Department official said. “It is normal whenever we see that the security situation is seriously deteriorating, as we are seeing in Ukraine.”
US Senator Chris Murphy, who is negotiating with Ukrainian leaders on the visit of a congressional delegation to Kiev, said: “I think Ukraine is ready. Ukraine is a war test.
“This is a country that knows how to fight, but my concern is that Putin is living in a hermit hole, convinced by a small group of blurry-eyed advisers that he will be there when he runs for president. Liberators Will be greeted as. Dnieper.”
The talks in Geneva follow inconclusive meetings between the US and Russia last week, as well as a rare NATO-Russia council meeting where Russia did not reach an agreement about Europe’s future security architecture, including a legally binding one. . The guarantee included that neither Ukraine nor Moldova would be allowed to enter NATO. Moscow wants to withdraw NATO troops from near the Russian border and eliminate some intermediate nuclear weapons in Europe.
The new invitation to talks with NATO may be Putin’s last attempt to show that the talks will bring him enough progress on arms control that he can sell to domestic audiences, and that a military intervention poses an immeasurable political risk to him. . represents. But NATO and Russia appear to be far from the agenda for talks.
Standing with Stoltenberg, Scholz said: “We all want stable and constructive relations with Russia. We are not interested in permanent tensions.” He said that there were strict ideas about how to resolve the issues in any dialogue with Russia.
He was also under pressure to say whether he believed in him. nord stream 2 Gas pipeline from Russia to Germany as a purely commercial contract. He said the project would be called off if there was an invasion, adding that he stuck to a deal Germany signed with the US last year.
Stoltenberg’s offer came as the German foreign minister, Annalena Barbock, met with her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow. Bairbock said it was difficult to see the build-up of Russian troops as anything other than a threat to Ukraine and that his country was prepared to pay a high price to defend its values.
Bairbock also called for an immediate return to talks on Ukraine’s future through the Normandy format, a four-way dialogue between Germany, Russia, France and Ukraine.
Lavrov said he would welcome US participation in the Normandy format, claiming it was impossible to persuade Ukraine to investigate urgent issues, including the legal situation. donbass, separatist territory within Ukraine.
Lavrov defended Russia’s right to move its troops within its borders and demanded written answers promised by both NATO and the US, including legally binding guarantees that would allow Russia to reshape the European security architecture. has been asked to write. It was agreed that neither Ukraine nor Moldova would be admitted to NATO.