That was the story in 2017 in 77% of the assembly constituencies, 47 out of the 61 seats to be precise, that are voting today in the fifth phase of the electoral battle for Uttar Pradesh. On these 47 seats, the winner had a victory margin which was less than the votes polled by the party that came third.
The ruling BJP and its principal challenger the Samajwadi Partywould hope to consolidate the gains they may have made in the first four rounds of voting.
With Ayodhya and Prayagraj voting in this phase, chief minister Yogi Adityanath-led ruling BJP will be looking for gains from its Ram Mandir achievement and its development works. The Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, will hope to gain from its allies in the region.
Apna Dal, which was founded by late Sone Lal Patel and is divided into two facts, could play a key role for both the contenders to power. Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal(S), which is in alliance with the BJP, will be pitted against its family rival – Apna Dal(K), which is supporting the Samajwadi Party. Akhilesh Yadav would hope to gain from this family divide in the region.
The SP would also be banking on its alliance with Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party of Om Prakash Rajbhar.
BJP clear winner in 2017
Like the previous four phases, the BJP was once again a clear winner in these 61 seats – winning 47 of them and ending as runner-up in 7 others. The Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) won 5 seats and was second in 27. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 3 and ended as runner-up in 14.
The Apna Dal bagged three seats and was second in two others. The Congress could win only 1 seat but was runner-up in 11 others.
On two seats, the Independents had emerged victorious in the last elections.
2012 vs 2017
The Samajwadi Party had lost heavily in 2017. The party’s tally in the region came down to 5 seats from the 41 that it had won in the 2012 elections. The SP’s loss was BJP’s gain. The saffron party increased its tally to 47 from the 5 seats it had won in the 2012 assembly elections. The BJP gained 31 seats from the Samajwadi Party, 6 from the BSP and 5 from the Congress.
Margin of victory
The BJP was a clear winner not just in the number of seats it won but also in terms of the victory margin.
The BJP won 9 of the Phase 5 seats with a victory margin of over 20% and 25 others with a margin between 10% and 20%.
In terms of votes, the BJP won 17 seats with a victory margin of over 30,000 votes. In 23 seats the win margin was between 10,000 and 30,000 votes.
This was way ahead of what its rivals could achieve. All the 9 seats won by the SP, BSP and the Congress was with a victory margin of less than 30,000 votes.
Division of votes
That brings us to the dominant theme on the 47 seats in this round of elections – the three-way division of votes.
In all these 47 seats, the party at the third position possibly ended up helping one of its rivals and in the process hurting the prospect of the other challenger.
While it is true that there is never a complete transfer of votes of one party to any other, even if they are in an alliance, even a partial shift of votes may have changed the result in some of these 47 seats in 2017.
The BSP once again led this race and was in the third position in as many as 43 seats. Significantly, in 32 of these 43, it polled more votes than the victory margin.
Mayawati’s party possibly ended up helping the BJP in 27 seats and the Samajwadi Party in 3. On 2 seats, the Apna Dal gained due to division of votes by the BSP.
But, it was not just the BSP that helped others.
The Samajwadi Party, which was fighting the BJP, also ended up helping the saffron party in as many as 8 seats and the BSP in 3 seats.
The Samajwadi Party may have suffered in 23 seats and the Congress on 7 due to the triangular contest involving the BSP.
However, the SP also hurt the prospects of the BSP in as many as 9 seats.
Clearly, while the BJP would be hoping for a repeat of 2017 as voters cast their franchise today, the SP would be wary of the harm that division of votes could do to its dream of capturing power once again.
,