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the state and of the 59 seats, 16 are reserved. According to the Uttar Pradesh Election Watch and Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), which has analyzed the self-sworn affidavits of 621 candidates out of 624, “as many as 167 (27 per cent) candidates have declared criminal cases against themselves. 129 (21 per cent) have declared serious criminal cases against themselves. Around 29 of the seats are red alert constituencies, where three or more contesting candidates have declared criminal cases against themselves.
For the BJP, which won 51 of 59 seats in the 2017 assembly polls, the challenge would be to retain its seats in the Terai region, where its Member of Parliament Varun Gandhi has trained his guns on the party’s government at the Center and in the state. With eight seats, Lakhimpur Kheri district poses another challenge to the ruling party. Though all the seats are held by the BJP, the recent bail to Ashish Mishra, the son of Union Minister Ajay Mishra ‘Teni’, who was arrested in connection with the violence that killed eight people, including four farmers on October 3, will be the litmus test for the ruling party.
Matters are no less complicated for the Congress, which needs to retain two of the five seats in Rae Bareli as two Congress MLAs — Rakesh Singh from Harchandpur and Aditi Singh — have switched sides to the BJP. Rae Bareli is the parliamentary constituency of Congress’ interim president Sonia Gandhi, who appealed to voters to support the party on February 21.
Nine assembly seats of Lucknow will also be voted for on February 23. Eight of these seats have BJP MLAs.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) had won four of the 59 seats in 2017. The Apna Dal (S), an ally of the ruling BJP, won one, while the BSP was victorious on two seats.
In phase four, the regions are not defined by any dominant narrative, unlike phase one and two where Jat and Muslim equations were the biggest factors or phase three where large pockets were traditional Yadav strongholds. The regions in phase four have often seen a swing. In 2007, when the BSP had formed the government in the state, it too had done significantly well in the region. The same was the case in 2012.
The 59 assembly seats going to polls in the fourth phase are Pilibhit, Barkheda, Puranpur (SC), Bisalpur, Palia, Nighasan, Gola Gokarnath, Srinagar (SC), Dhaurhara, Lakhimpur, Kasta (SC), Mohammadi, Maholi, Sitapur, Hargaon (SC), Laharpur, Biswan, Sevata, Mahmudabad, Sidhauli (SC), Misrikh (SC), Sawaijpur, Shahabad, Hardoi, Gopamau (SC), Sandi (SC), Bilgram-Mallanwa, Balamau (SC), Sandila, Bangarmau, Safipur (SC), Mohan (SC), Unnao, Bhagwantnagar, Purva, Malihabad (SC), Bakshi Ka Talab, Sarojininagar, Lucknow West, Lucknow North, Lucknow East,Lucknow Central, Lucknow Cantonment, Mohanlalganj (SC), Bachhrawan (SC) , Harchandpur, Rae Bareli, Sareni, Unch Shahar, Tindwari, Baberu, Naraini (SC), Banda, Jehanabad, Bindki, Fatehpur, Ayahshah, Hussainganj and Khaga (SC).
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