ABP CVoter Survey: Assembly elections are due in Uttar Pradesh next year along with other states like Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur. Competition for Uttar Pradesh is important given the strategic importance for political parties to maintain or establish dominance in the Hindi heartland.
Outgoing Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has become the longest-serving BJP chief minister in the state.
Read also | ABP News Voter Survey: AAP likely to get close to majority in Punjab, Congress ties the rope
While the Chief Minister has been lauded by top BJP leaders for the state government’s handling of the devastating Covid-19 second wave, the sight of dead bodies floating in the Ganges is still fresh in people’s minds.
So will the BJP under CM Adityanath repeat its performance of March 2017 when it came to power with a thumping majority in the most populous state?
Where do major opposition parties like Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) stand? And will the Congress, which last went to polls in alliance with the SP, make its presence felt under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi?
ABP along with CVoter conducted a survey to understand the mood of the people of Uttar Pradesh ahead of the elections.
vote percentage
Based on the initial estimates, BJP is expected to see a 0.4% increase in the percentage of votes. On the other hand, the SP is projected to secure 6.6% of the vote in the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, BSP may face a significant setback with a fall in vote percentage (-6.5%) and Congress (INC) is also expected to lose some of its shares as compared to 2017 (-1.2%).
| alliance | 2017 Result | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| BJP+ | 41.4 | 41.8 | 0.4 |
| SP+ | 23.6 | 30.2 | 6.6 |
| for example: | 22.2 | 15.7 | -6.5 |
| Congress | 6.3 | 5.1 | -1.2 |
| other | 6.5 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
Number of seats
In a worrying prediction for the BJP, which is aiming to garner more seats than last time, the party may lose 62 seats, while the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP may get 65. The BSP is expected to lose five seats and the Congress two seats.
| alliance | 2017 Result | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| BJP+ | 325 | 263 | -62 |
| SP+ | 48 | 113 | 65 |
| for example: | 19 | 14 | -5 |
| Congress | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| other | 4 | 8 | 4 |
In terms of the range of seats, BJP is projected to win 259 to 267 seats and SP may win 109 to 117 seats, followed by BSP 12 to 16, Congress 3 to 7 and others 6 to 10.
Conclusion
While the BJP may lose more than 60 seats, it may still go on to form the government – thereby securing its stronghold in the Hindi-speaking region. Meanwhile, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s claim of winning more than 400 seats in this election is unlikely to come true.
For BSP supremo Mayawati, another electoral defeat could result in a hindrance in remaining a relevant political force in the state.
The current poll results do not give much hope to the Congress, which is relying on a public appeal for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s return to the state.
Disclaimer
The current opinion poll/poll was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 81000+ across 5 cities (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) and survey it was done. 1. out during the periodscheduled tribe August 2021 to 2Ra September 2021. It is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily cover all criteria.
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