New Delhi: A 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on Monday is likely to be one of the deadliest this decade, seismologists said, rupturing more than 100 km (62 miles) between the Anatolian and Arabian plates.
Here’s what scientists say happened beneath Earth’s surface and what to expect in the aftermath:
Where did the earthquake in Turkey originate?
The epicenter of the earthquake was about 26 km east of the Turkish city of Nurdagi at a depth of about 18 km on the East Anatolian Fault. The earthquake radiated to the northeast, causing devastation in central Turkey and Syria.
During the 20th century, there was little seismic activity from the East Anatolian Fault. “If we were going by (major) earthquakes as recorded by seismometers, it would appear more or less empty,” said Roger Musson, an honorary research associate at the British Geological Survey.
According to the US Geological Survey, only three earthquakes above 6.0 on the Richter scale have been recorded in the region since 1970. But in 1822, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck the region, killing an estimated 20,000 people.
How bad was this Turkey earthquake?
On average, there are fewer than 20 earthquakes greater than magnitude 7.0 in any given year, making Monday’s event a serious one.
According to Joanna Faure Walker, head of the University College London Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, the Turkey-Syria earthquake released 250 times more energy than the 6.2 earthquake that struck central Italy in 2016, which killed nearly 300 people.
Of the deadliest earthquakes from 2013 to 2022, only two had magnitudes similar to Monday’s.
Why was the earthquake in Turkey so severe?
The East Anatolian Fault is a strike-slip fault.
In those, solid rock plates are pushing against each other above a vertical fault line, building up stress until one slips in a horizontal motion, releasing tremendous amounts of stress that trigger an earthquake. Could
The San Andreas Fault in California is perhaps the world’s most famous strike-slip fault, with scientists warning that a devastating earthquake is long overdue.
The initial rupture for the Turkey–Syria earthquake began at a relatively shallow depth.
“The tremor at the ground surface would be more severe than a deeper earthquake of the same magnitude at the source,” said David Rothery, a planetary geoscientist at the Open University in Britain.
What kind of shocks can be expected in Turkey?
Eleven minutes after the initial earthquake, a 6.7-magnitude aftershock struck the region. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred hours later, followed by a magnitude 6.0 earthquake in the afternoon.
“What we’re seeing now is activity spreading to neighboring faults,” Musson said. “We expect the seismicity to continue for a while.”
After the fatal event of 1822, tremors continued into the next year.
What could be the death toll from the final Turkey, Syria earthquake?
Earthquakes of similar magnitude have killed thousands in populated areas. In 2015, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal, killing nearly 9,000 people.
“It’s not going to be good,” Musson said. “It will be in the thousands, and may be in the thousands.”
He said the cold weather meant the chances of survival for those trapped under the debris were slim.