Mumbai: Nearly 80% of the population in Maharashtra’s capital Mumbai is likely to be exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus caused by the Covid-19, a projection by scientists at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) suggests that the peak of the third wave is likely to be as large. is unlikely. second wave.
Dr Sandeep Juneja, dean of TIFR’s School of Technology and Computer Science, who is the lead author of the study, said that “re-infection in the third wave will be the key”.
Mumbai recorded 90 deaths during the peak of the second wave on May 1.
Stating that tracking re-infections will help civic authorities catch the trend early, Dr Juneja said it would help in checking the third wave if 20% of people in Mumbai who have not yet caught Covid Yes, they are vaccinated soon.
“We also consider a somewhat pessimistic scenario, where re-infections are significant (out of 80% cured, 10% are amenable to infection, and if infected, the disease progression is similar to that of being infected for the first time). will follow), or a newer variant that is 50% more infectious and 50% more virulent than the delta version,” the scientists said.
Other factors that could influence the third wave of COVID would be poor vaccine effectiveness or city openings at 60% but low adherence to COVID-appropriate practices.
“Despite these negatives, the resulting peak does not appear to be larger than that under the second wave”, Dr Juneja said.
A third wave of COVID will be barely noticeable by September if four factors – re-infections are mild; There are no new dangerous forms, vaccination coverage is extensive in June, July and August; And the vaccine is 75-95% effective – align.
The study noted that Mumbai’s peak during the second wave was lower than Delhi and Bengaluru due to higher levels of previous exposure to the virus.
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