Israel is now focused on the Hezbollah threat. Hezbollah has been carrying out attacks since October 8 in the wake of the Hamas attack. Hezbollah fired more than 2,000 rockets at Israel between October 8 and January 9. It also fired dozens of anti-tank guided missiles and drones at Israel.
The Hezbollah threat is clear, but it is also changing. The group has embedded itself within communities in southern Lebanon over the last decades. It has built tunnels and bunkers and also built houses and posts used for observation of Israel.
On February 3, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari gave an extensive statement focusing on the Hezbollah threat. It’s worth going over the data he provided and other data on the Hezbollah threat to underscore the issues facing northern Israel.
First of all, it’s worth noting that Israel evacuated the communities along the northern border in October, sending more than 80,000 people to live in hotels and other areas. In the last weeks, Israeli officials have often indicated how important it is for the Hezbollah threats to stop in the north. For instance, Israel’s Chief of Staff Herzi HaLevi said in January that the likelihood of conflict had increased. Israel’s Defense Minister was in Haifa last week and also warned of conflict.
The Director General of Israel’s Ministry of Defense also visited the north last week and detailed the damage caused to some 430 homes on the border by Hezbollah attacks.
Israel has responded to the attacks, Hagari said on February 3, by deploying three IDF divisions along the border. Israel has also responded with defensive and offensive operations. Over 200 terrorists have been targeted, and 150 terror cells have been struck. 3,400 Hezbollah targets have been struck. 120 Hezbollah observation posts have been hit. Forty weapon storages have been struck. In addition, Israel struck over 40 “command and control” centers. The Hezbollah drone threat is also increasing. Israel has focused on this threat. It has also focused on preventing weapons from reaching Hezbollah via Syria.
Much of the campaign the IDF has waged was known because the IDF has released statements about daily retaliatory strikes on Hezbollah. The real question now is how Hezbollah may shift forces, whether Hezbollah has been degraded in its capabilities, and how it may respond. The Hezbollah threat was always believed to be much worse than the Hamas threat prior to October 7.
When Hamas was able to break through the border fence in 29 locations, massacre 1,000 people, and kidnap 240, this led to many questions about whether Hezbollah had been underestimated as well. This may not be the case. It may be that Hamas was able to exploit certain frameworks to achieve its brutal massacre and that Hezbollah faces some challenges that Hamas did not face. For instance, the terrain in northern Israel consists of hills on the border. Hezbollah can’t likely conduct the kind of human wave attacks that Hamas did.
Nevertheless, the Hezbollah threat is clear along the border. The organization has carried out near-daily attacks on Israel. However, it did not choose to join the war completely in support of Hamas. Instead, it was operationalized by Iran to conduct smaller attacks and to “normalize” this situation of attacks.
Prior to October 7, Israel would never have permitted Hezbollah to fire 2,000 rockets at Israel without a major conflict likely occurring. However, the desire to focus on defeating Hamas provided some cover for Hezbollah to change the paradigm in the north. The goal is to now shift that paradigm back. The Hamas massacre has also changed the feeling people in Israel have about seeing Hezbollah on the border. Now, it is understood that when the terror groups openly parade on the border, it can be a prelude to massacre.
Hezbollah was already pushing the envelope in 2022 and 2023. It had threatened Israel during the maritime negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, which took place on the eve of the last Israeli election in 2022. In addition, Hezbollah began to try to shift the border at Mount Dov, where it set up a tent.
Hezbollah’s provocation tests Israel
This provocation was designed to see if it could create “facts on the ground” as to how Israel would respond. In general Hezbollah continued to provoke up until October 8 when its attacks began. Its attacks have provided Israel a right to respond.
There are several aspects of the Hezbollah threat that are now in focus. First, the Hezbollah drone threat has increased. The group has used an unprecedented number of drones since October 8 to threaten Israel. These have caused sirens to sound in numerous communities sometimes because the threat is complex, and drones can fly a flight path that is different than a missile. Hezbollah has also sought to target sensitive sites in the north, sometimes with drones or missiles.
Hezbollah may have over-reached. If it is not interested in a larger war, then it has become “too big to fail” in the sense that it carpeted southern Lebanon with too much terrorist infrastructure, creating many potential targets and leaving itself exposed.
The large number of targets Israel has struck is important, but it is unclear what percentage of the total they reflect. By the numbers, the Hezbollah attacks, which may have reached around 3,000 in number of munitions used, is similar to the number of retaliatory strikes. Is this a new version of the Cold War concept of “mutually assured destruction” doctrine where neither side wants to escalate too much?
On the other hand Hezbollah has changed the rules of engagement in the north, essentially tossing out everything since 2006 to begin its large number of attacks. Israel, which already waged a decade-long Campaign Between the Wars against Iranian entrenchment in Syria and support for Hezbollah, now faces the potential diminishing returns of a cycle of conflict with Hezbollah. For instance, the first 3,400 targets struck may have been important, but what about the potential for the next 3,400?
These are all key questions now in the north as the Gaza war passes its four-month depressing anniversary. Back during Passover 2023, there was a rocket barrage at Israel from Lebanon. This was considered a big deal back then. Now the communities targeted near Shlomi are evacuated.
I recall at the time, one man heard on the radio about the “cycle” of violence and shouted that it was not a “cycle,” but rather Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had started it. Indeed, Hezbollah started this round as well. Hezbollah, like Hamas, seeks the initiative. The challenge is taking that initiative from their hands.