The R-factor, which indicates the speed at which the COVID-19 infection is spreading in the country, is climbing sharply with Kerala and the northeastern states occupying the top spots leading to the re-emergence of the pandemic. Worrying about raising her head. Among metro cities, the R-values of Pune and Delhi are trending towards one, shows an analysis by researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai.
The national capital recorded 51 fresh COVID-19 cases on Thursday with a positivity rate of 0.08 per cent. Active cases in Delhi are 554. Both the daily increase in cases and active infections have remained more or less the same. When the number of active cases remains in the range of a few hundred and the R-value is close to one, an outbreak can be controlled very easily, said Sitabhara Sinha of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, who is leading the team. he said. When the second wave of COVID-19 infections was at its peak, the total R-value in the country was estimated to be 1.37 between March 9 and April 21. It decreased to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1, and then to 1.1 between April 1. According to the analysis, April 29 and May 7.
Between 9 and 11 May, the R-value was estimated to be approximately 0.98. It fell to 0.82 between May 14 and May 30 and 0.78 from May 15 to June 26. However, the R-value went up to 0.88 from June 20 to July 7, and 0.95 from July 3-22. “India’s overall active cases are fluctuating too much to get a reliable estimate, but the data is pointing to a value closer to one. It may reverse either way in the coming few days,” Sinha said.
An R-value of 0.95 means that every 100 infected persons pass the infection on to an average of 95 other persons. If the R-value is less than one, it means that the number of newly infected people is less than the number of people infected in the preceding period, which means that the incidence of the disease is decreasing. The smaller the value of R, the faster the disease progresses. Conversely, if R is greater than one, the number of people infected is increasing in each round – technically, this is called the epidemic phase. The larger this number than one, the faster the rate of spread of the disease in the population.
Kerala has the highest number of active cases and its R-value remains around 1.11. “It looks like it will remain at the top position for the next few weeks. Most of the states remain very poor with Northeast having more than one R-value,” Sinha said.
The Union Health Ministry on Thursday said it will depute a six-member team to Kerala for effective COVID-19 management as the state reports a spike in daily cases. The team, led by National Center for Disease Control director SK Singh, will reach Kerala on Friday and visit some districts where high cases will report positivity rates. The high case positivity remains a matter of concern at a time when the total coronavirus numbers in the country are on the decline.
Kerala on Wednesday reported 22,056 fresh COVID-19 cases, pushing the infection caseload to 33,27,301, taking the death toll from the virus to 16,457 with 131 more deaths. In the Northeast, only Tripura has an R-value significantly below one while Manipur has gone down only slightly to one. Among other states in India, Uttarakhand’s R-value is very close to one at the moment.
Among major cities, the R-value of Delhi was moving towards one. Between June 21- 26 the R-value was 0.8. It decreased to 0.66 between June 28 and July 6, but increased to 0.84 between July 4 and 20. Elaborating on the situation in the national capital, he said that if the number of active cases is stable, then the R-value is one. “Even if r momentarily exceeds one, there is a possibility that you can include it. For example, if the active cases are in the hundred, you still have the possibility that Before it completely gets out of hand. “Once it gets to a few thousand and R is greater than one the situation is dangerous.” Pune’s R-value July 11-13 between 0.85 and 15–20 July was 0.89. For the national capital, the R-value was 0.80 between 21–26 June. It fell to 0.66 from 28 June to 6 July, but fell from 4–20 It rose to 0.84 in the middle of July.
For Bengaluru, the R-value between July 7-13 was 0.92. It rose marginally to 0.95 from July 13-17. It fell to 0.72 by 17-23 July. In the case of Mumbai, the R-value between July 2-4 was 0.96. It fell to 0.89 between July 6-9. Between July 22-24, it further fell to 0.74.
For Chennai, the R-value between 29 June and 7 July was 0.63. Between 16-19 July it reached 1.05. It was 0.94 between 21-24 showing signs of decline. In the case of Kolkata, the R-value was 0.80 between July 1-13, followed by 0.91 between July 12-17. Between July 17-24, it fell to 0.86.
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