edited by: Oindrila Mukherjee
Last Update: February 17, 2023, 07:34 IST
The BJP is looking worried about the pre-poll alliance between the Left and the Congress in Tripura. (Representational Image: Reuters/File)
The BJP feels that a triangular contest would have ensured an easy comeback for it and the opposition vote would have been split, but a united opposition would have ensured consolidation of the anti-BJP vote
The Tripura battle is being considered as the toughest for the BJP as it takes on the alliance of the Congress and the CPI(M). The party has been unable to win elections whenever it has faced a united opposition and is now desperate for a win in Tripura, which is reflected in how it has sent star campaigners to the electoral battleground.
The contest has become more challenging after the opposition alliance got the tacit support of Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarman, head of Tripuri royal scion Tipra Motha, the man behind the revival of tribal politics in the state.
The BJP is also worried about this pre-poll alliance of the opposition in the northeastern state. While most senior BJP leaders publicly express confidence of returning to power in the 60-member assembly, in private they remain concerned about the new found mix of opposition.
The BJP feels that a triangular contest would have ensured its easy comeback and the opposition votes would have been split. But a united opposition will ensure that anti-BJP votes remain consolidated and ultimately hurt its prospects.
There have been several elections since the 2014 Lok Sabha when the collective vote share of the opposition exceeded the vote share of the BJP and yet the party had more seats than the opposition without being collectively united. Over the past several years, the BJP has been unable to win any state election where it has faced candidates fielded by a united opposition.
Take the example of West Bengal and Jharkhand, which may well serve as case studies where the saffron unit has been unable to perform as expected due to strategic alliances forged by opposition parties in these states. It should also be noted that in Uttar Pradesh, the party was able to secure a majority in the Legislative Assembly as the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party failed to form an alliance. In the 2018 Lok Sabha by-elections, the united opposition of SP-BSP wrested seats from the BJP in seats like Gorakhpur and Phulpur. But the alliance failed in 2019. Narendra Modi However, in the Lok Sabha elections, the factors outweigh each other.
In fact, the coming together of the opposition parties is being considered as a strategic failure of the BJP leadership in the state and at the Centre. The party has, in the past, been successful in thwarting similar attempts to consolidate anti-BJP votes in the Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra assembly elections. This proved to be extremely beneficial for the party as it was able to emerge as the single largest party in these states.
The fractured opposition vote ensures that the battle is won for the BJP even before the first vote is cast. However, the failure of the strategists to stop the opposition alliances could mean that the party may face defeat or lose its beard.
With the 2024 Lok Sabha elections only a year away, the BJP will need to ensure that it acts on the rift between the various opposition parties if it wants to secure a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There are states like Punjab and Bihar, where it can look for smaller regional outfits or form an understanding with its previous allies in at least one of these states.
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