Congress leader Sachin Pilot remains an epicenter of Rajasthan politics ever since the Congress wrested power from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state in the 2018 assembly elections. Over the last five years, Pilot has been seen in a variety of roles, some of which were unexpected and problematic for his party. He was like a real warrior during the 2018 election. As the President of the Rajasthan Congress, he devised strategies to oust the BJP from power and implemented them meticulously across the state.
After the 2018 election victory, the CM post triggered a fierce rivalry with his senior colleague Ashok Gehlot. Gehlot beats Pilot in the game of thrones After this, Gehlot won the confidence of the high command led by Sonia Gandhi and became the chief minister. Pilot compromised with the post of Deputy CM. Obviously this hurt the pilot and his supporters. Days before Gehlot was elected as the CM, high political drama in Jaipur pitted the two against each other, often resulting in a war of words. Gehlot and Pilot traded allegations against each other and upset the state unit of the party. In July 2020, the bitterness crossed limits and a distraught Pilot along with 18 MLAs reached a hotel in Haryana. There were speculations that the BJP was behind the coup. However, the Congress somehow managed to avoid a breakaway. The coup chapter ended with him losing the post of state party president and deputy CM. But, the rivalry did not end there.
Now just before the assembly elections, the pilots have again returned to rebellion mode. This time, he observed a one-day fast against the Gehlot government, pressuring action against some people who indulged in corruption during the BJP rule.
Now the question is why at a very crucial juncture (elections) a senior party donned the cap of a rebel. Pilot is a seasoned politician. He would weigh all the consequences of his day-long hunger strike at the Martyr’s Memorial in Jaipur. It is difficult to decode their hidden strategies at this point of time. However, he may play four possible cards in the coming days.
New Party: The politics of Rajasthan Congress can explode like in Punjab. Just before the Punjab assembly elections, the then CM Amarinder Singh left the Congress and formed his own party Punjab Lok Congress (PLK) and entered into a pre-poll alliance with the BJP. Pilot can form his own regional party to appease his supporters. His own party would enable him to target both the Gehlot-led Congress and the BJP. He can talk to BJP or Congress after the elections. He may get the chief minister’s post in the event of a hung assembly, however, this is of course a very speculative theory.
Be a turncoat: With his recent protests against Gehlot, it is certain that the space for Pilot in the state unit will further shrink. In such a suffocating environment, it is unlikely that he will extend his innings in the grand old party. His close friend and former colleague Jyotiraditya Scindia is already in the BJP, who may convince Pilot to jump ship. In the coming days, if BJP’s internal survey shows him losing the election battle, then BJP can take him with them. Like the saffron party did in the case of Eknath Shinde in Maharashtra. With influence in at least 20 constituencies, Pilot may be the kingmaker or perhaps the Raja (Chief Minister).
Stay in Congress: Pilot is close to the new generation leadership of the Congress – Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The Gandhi siblings can use their good rapport with Pilot to persuade him to stay with the party. He may get the promise of CM post, which clearly seems impossible as Gehlot and his supporting MLAs will not give it up. Seeing the defeat of Rajasthan, the Congress may agree to the conditions of the pilot.
Silent game: Pilots can resort to the status quo on their planes, leaving their rivals guessing about their next move. He can open his cards after the election and pick up the best offer. If two dozen or more of his loyal candidates win the election, he will bet more.