Russo-Ukraine war affects China’s BRI projects in Central, Eastern European countries

Beijing: China’s ’17+1 initiative’ has been hit hard after the ongoing war in Ukraine, as most Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have become wary of foreign powers, including China. The `17+1 Initiative’ was formed in 2012 by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to promote trade and investment relations between China and the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Realizing the unease in the CEE government’s attitude, China sent two of its delegations to 10 countries to discuss how to clear up misunderstandings about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to re-establish its interest in the Belt-Road Initiative. Sent, writes Valerio Fabry think-tank Russian Council of International Affairs.

However, many CEE countries did not attach much importance to these delegations and instead asked lower officials to hold discussions with Chinese representatives. The most disappointing response came from Poland, where the Chinese delegation could not even meet Polish Foreign Ministry officials. Although China launched the ’17+1 Initiative’ to increase its penetration in the European region, its failure to convert investment promises into real investments has hampered the group’s progress.

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the founding of the ’17+1 Initiative’, but most CEE countries have not shown enthusiasm to celebrate the historic year. Furthermore, Beijing could not find a single CEE country that would be willing to host the annual summit.

According to the author, Chinese investments in CEE countries are limited to only a few countries such as Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland. And in 2020, its investments in CEE countries accounted for 3 percent of total Chinese investments in Europe. Chinese companies have also not shown much enthusiasm in investing in these countries as they are less profitable.

Some major projects, such as Romania’s Carnavoda nuclear power plant or the Budapest (Hungary)–Belgrade (Serbia) railway project, which could have improved China’s image in the CEE region, were either abandoned or faced delays. Relations between China and the CEE countries worsened when Beijing began targeting them for building ties with Taiwan.

China has warned Czech Senate President Milos Vistrasil ahead of his official visit to Taiwan in 2020, saying he will “pay a heavy price” if he visits Taipei. Lithuania was targeted by economic sanctions in 2021 for its decision to open the ‘Taiwan Representative Office’ instead of using the generic title ‘Taipei Economic and Cultural Office’ in Vilnius.

According to Fabry, the lowest point in the ’17+1 initiative’ came when Lithuania left the group in May 2021, when its parliament passed a resolution condemning China’s treatment of its Muslim Uighur minority, calling it ” described as a crime against humanity. ‘Genocide.’ With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the dynamics of the entire European region have changed. By providing support to Ukraine against Russia, the US has strengthened its position in the region and the CEE countries are also located in the vicinity of Kyiv, which made Washington a key security guarantor. And the US has been highlighting China as a strategic and economic threat that is likely to undermine European unity.