Russian President Vladimir Putin listening during a meeting in Moscow
In December 2021, Ukrainian officials said that Russia could invade the country next month. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said the number of Russian troops near Ukraine and in Russia-affiliated Crimea stood at 94,300, and warned that a “massive increase” was possible in January. The world believes that there will be an invasion soon.
But what is the cause of stress?
Russia and Ukraine share deep cultural, linguistic, economic and political bonds with each other along a 1,974 km land border. Russian President Putin continued to call Ukraine “Little Russia”. In July 2021, Putin wrote an article titled “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, in which he argued that the two nations are “one people”.
Current Status – An Overview
Russia has accumulated thousands of troops and military hardware, including tanks, artillery, and armored military carriers, along the border with Ukraine over the past several weeks, raising fears of an imminent invasion. Estimates suggest that about 100,000 troops are deployed by Russia in 100 battalion tactical groups. However, Russia has been denying that it plans to attack Ukraine.
Putin has made it clear that he will not allow Ukraine to become “anti-Russian”. In July 2021, he wrote an article explaining his views about the shared history of the two countries, describing Russians and Ukrainians as “one people”, effectively “the same historical and spiritual place”. “Capture.
The current denial appears to be the culmination of events that unfolded with the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. The Russian-speaking community in eastern Ukraine also established its own autonomous state, the Donetsk People’s Republic, in 2014. Ukraine could not stop it because the opposition of the US and its western allies was limited to protests only. The West is determined that it will not allow anything like this to happen in 2022.
For the US and the European Union, Ukraine is an important buffer between Russia and the West. Russia regards Ukraine’s membership of NATO as a “red line” because it would extend the US-led military alliance to its doorstep. In the past, Putin has warned the West that Ukraine’s membership of the coalition “would be an act hostile to Russia.” In August 2008, Russia went to war with Georgia, intended to demonstrate Putin’s willingness to use force to secure Russia’s interests.
Putin believes that Ukraine’s presence in the Russian camp is necessary for Russian and regional security. Russia’s mobilization of troops along the Ukrainian border is a sign that Putin will consider aggression unless Ukraine and the West withdraw.
History of Russia-Ukraine standoff
Ukraine got its independence in 1991 after the breakup of the USSR.
A decision by Kremlin-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich to reject a union agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Moscow has sparked widespread protests, leading to his expulsion in 2014. Russia took over Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and threw its weight behind one. A separatist insurgency broke out in the east of Ukraine.
Mass protests erupted in Ukraine after Kremlin-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 rejected a cooperation agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia. Soon, the president was kicked out. Russia responded by invading Crimea, which was part of Ukraine.
More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting. This led to a strong commitment by both the US and the European Union to protect the integrity of Ukraine’s borders.
What does Russia want?
Russia wants to further block the expansion of NATO in the east. The country wants NATO to abandon military activity in favor of Russia’s Europe.
In a detailed report released by the BBC, Russia is already concerned by Ukraine’s deployment of Turkish drones against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine and western military exercises in the Black Sea.
The report also points out that Russia is also disappointed that the 2015 Minsk peace agreement aimed at preventing conflict in eastern Ukraine has not been completed. There is still no system of independently supervised elections in separatist areas. Russia denies allegations that it is part of a long-running conflict.
West’s involvement, warns of Joe Biden
Face-to-face for more than two hours, US President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin split in a secure video call On December 8, when the US President gave notice to Moscow that an invasion of Ukraine would bring sanctions and cause huge damage to the Russian economy.
“Biden told President Putin directly that if Russia attacks Ukraine further, the United States and our European allies will respond with strong economic measures,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said after the call. He added that Biden said the US “will provide the Ukrainians with additional defensive material … and we will strengthen our NATO allies on the East Coast with additional capabilities in response to such escalation.”
Putin requested a second call between the leaders this month ahead of talks scheduled between senior US and Russian officials on January 9 and 10 in Geneva. Russia will meet after the Geneva talks-nato Talks at the Council on 12 January and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in Vienna on 13 January.
what is next?
A political analyst in Ukraine insisted that Russia and the US are “one step closer to war” following a call between the leaders of the two countries., Kiev-based political analyst Petro Burkovsky said Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown he is ready to defy Western sanctions in the event of another invasion of Ukraine.
His remarks came on Thursday after nearly an hour-long talks between the two presidents amid growing alarm over Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine. US President Joe Biden told Putin that the two powers now face two paths: US deterrence through diplomacy or sanctions, according to a senior US administration official.
Putin said the new sanctions against Moscow could completely break relations between the nations. Russia has made clear that it wants a written commitment that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO and that the coalition’s military equipment will not be deployed in former Soviet states.
The Biden administration has rejected these demands. Burkowski said he believed the West was “losing control” in talks with Moscow, and that Russia now had the “upper hand” in the talks.
(with inputs from agencies)
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