Paris: Global food prices are rising at their fastest rate in a decade, adding to the woes of the world’s most vulnerable countries as they grapple with damage from the coronavirus pandemic.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is concerned that rising prices could exacerbate social unrest in countries already mired in political turmoil.
Here’s a look at the situation around the world:
According to the FAO, food prices in May rose nearly 40 percent higher than a year earlier, the sharpest increase since September 2011.
On a 12-month basis, the price of maize rose by 88 per cent, soybean by 73 per cent, cereal and dairy products by 38 per cent, sugar by 34 per cent and meat by 10 per cent.
“Obviously this is very worrying,” said Arif Hussain, chief economist at world food program.
In 2007–2008, brutal increases in the prices of basic food items sparked riots in many cities around the world. At a peak in 2010–2011, price increases acted as a precursor to the Arab Spring uprising.
The global economy is recovering, but inflation is also rising as governments spent huge sums on stimulus programs last year after the pandemic brought economic activity to a halt.
China, which world Bank The projects will register a growth of 8.5 percent in 2021, consuming basic food items such as oilseeds, cereals and meat.
“It is actually China that is currently driving the rise in food prices,” said economist Philippe Chalamin.
The US economy is also expected to bounce back strongly, with the World Bank forecasting a growth of 6.8 percent this year.
But the economic recovery around the world is “very uneven”, with developing countries facing high import bills while their incomes are not growing, said Joseph Schmituber, deputy director of the FAO’s trade and markets division.
Other factors behind the rise in prices include a drought in Brazil, which is driving up corn prices, a jump in oil prices and an explosion in sea freight costs.
It’s hard to say.
At present, the crop is expected to be very good.
US Department of Agriculture is forecasting record crop production for 2021-2022 and also record harvests of Brazilian soybeans and US corn. If these come into effect, it will help in reducing the price position.
But climate conditions could be a wild card in such projections.
FAO’s Schmidhuber believes that prices will remain relatively high this year, especially if oil prices rise as the agriculture sector consumes a lot of energy.
“If they rise, food prices will remain high for a long time”.
For FAO economist Abdolreza Abbasian, “the only thing we know is that the food market is going to be even more volatile in the future than in the past”.
WFP’s Arif Hussain said that in many countries currently facing other “shocks”, such as Covid-19, food price inflation is currently over 20 per cent.
Lebanon is facing a severe financial and economic crisis that has sent its currency into a tailspin and brought the country closer to default. According to the website Trading Economics, the rate of food price inflation on a 12-month basis in May was 226 per cent.
In Argentina, the government suspended beef imports for a month in mid-May as food price inflation skyrocketed.
According to the World Bank, high inflation in Nigeria has driven another 7 million people into poverty due to a sharp rise in food prices.
“The prices are going up, but at the same time people’s income is going down due to Kovid,” said Hussain of WFP.
“A poor person is bullied because prices go up and at the same time they have no money,” he said, adding that the conflict was the main cause of food insecurity.
FAO economist Abbasian said there is “no evidence that countries are better prepared than they were 10 years ago” for such price fluctuations.
“More or less the same countries that were at the forefront of riots and political instability 10 years ago can easily find themselves in the exact same situation today: waking up in the morning and finding that prices have risen too rapidly,” the economist said.
However, unlike a decade ago, when rising food prices were clearly the main cause of social discontent, they were now “one with many other issues”.
Rich countries, Abbasian said, should be “ready to boom” in Africa, Latin America and Asia.
“The dissatisfaction has now spread widely”.
For social unrest to erupt, “all you need is a tiny spark. It could be food prices, or energy prices, or just bad rain.”
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is concerned that rising prices could exacerbate social unrest in countries already mired in political turmoil.
Here’s a look at the situation around the world:
According to the FAO, food prices in May rose nearly 40 percent higher than a year earlier, the sharpest increase since September 2011.
On a 12-month basis, the price of maize rose by 88 per cent, soybean by 73 per cent, cereal and dairy products by 38 per cent, sugar by 34 per cent and meat by 10 per cent.
“Obviously this is very worrying,” said Arif Hussain, chief economist at world food program.
In 2007–2008, brutal increases in the prices of basic food items sparked riots in many cities around the world. At a peak in 2010–2011, price increases acted as a precursor to the Arab Spring uprising.
The global economy is recovering, but inflation is also rising as governments spent huge sums on stimulus programs last year after the pandemic brought economic activity to a halt.
China, which world Bank The projects will register a growth of 8.5 percent in 2021, consuming basic food items such as oilseeds, cereals and meat.
“It is actually China that is currently driving the rise in food prices,” said economist Philippe Chalamin.
The US economy is also expected to bounce back strongly, with the World Bank forecasting a growth of 6.8 percent this year.
But the economic recovery around the world is “very uneven”, with developing countries facing high import bills while their incomes are not growing, said Joseph Schmituber, deputy director of the FAO’s trade and markets division.
Other factors behind the rise in prices include a drought in Brazil, which is driving up corn prices, a jump in oil prices and an explosion in sea freight costs.
It’s hard to say.
At present, the crop is expected to be very good.
US Department of Agriculture is forecasting record crop production for 2021-2022 and also record harvests of Brazilian soybeans and US corn. If these come into effect, it will help in reducing the price position.
But climate conditions could be a wild card in such projections.
FAO’s Schmidhuber believes that prices will remain relatively high this year, especially if oil prices rise as the agriculture sector consumes a lot of energy.
“If they rise, food prices will remain high for a long time”.
For FAO economist Abdolreza Abbasian, “the only thing we know is that the food market is going to be even more volatile in the future than in the past”.
WFP’s Arif Hussain said that in many countries currently facing other “shocks”, such as Covid-19, food price inflation is currently over 20 per cent.
Lebanon is facing a severe financial and economic crisis that has sent its currency into a tailspin and brought the country closer to default. According to the website Trading Economics, the rate of food price inflation on a 12-month basis in May was 226 per cent.
In Argentina, the government suspended beef imports for a month in mid-May as food price inflation skyrocketed.
According to the World Bank, high inflation in Nigeria has driven another 7 million people into poverty due to a sharp rise in food prices.
“The prices are going up, but at the same time people’s income is going down due to Kovid,” said Hussain of WFP.
“A poor person is bullied because prices go up and at the same time they have no money,” he said, adding that the conflict was the main cause of food insecurity.
FAO economist Abbasian said there is “no evidence that countries are better prepared than they were 10 years ago” for such price fluctuations.
“More or less the same countries that were at the forefront of riots and political instability 10 years ago can easily find themselves in the exact same situation today: waking up in the morning and finding that prices have risen too rapidly,” the economist said.
However, unlike a decade ago, when rising food prices were clearly the main cause of social discontent, they were now “one with many other issues”.
Rich countries, Abbasian said, should be “ready to boom” in Africa, Latin America and Asia.
“The dissatisfaction has now spread widely”.
For social unrest to erupt, “all you need is a tiny spark. It could be food prices, or energy prices, or just bad rain.”
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