New Delhi: The Reserve Bank on Thursday projected retail inflation to ease marginally to 5.2 per cent in the current fiscal, but cautioned that the fight against inflation is far from over. While the Reserve Bank slashed its inflation forecast from its February estimate of 5.3 per cent, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the inflation outlook remained dynamic amid the recent jump in crude prices due to OPEC’s decision to cut production Has happened.
Das said taking into account crude oil price of $80 a barrel and a normal monsoon, retail inflation is estimated at 5.2 per cent in the current fiscal, with risks evenly balanced. For the June quarter, retail inflation is expected to average 5.1 per cent and rise to 5.4 per cent in the September and December quarters.
It is expected to decline to 5.2 per cent in the March 2024 quarter. Das said the central bank’s fight against inflation will continue till inflation comes down to the target level. The governor said in the monetary policy statement, “The fight against inflation is not over yet…”.
The RBI has a mandate to keep inflation at 4 per cent, with a band of (+/-) 2 per cent on either side. Retail inflation has remained above the RBI’s upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for two months and stood at 6.44 per cent in February.