Peak of third wave is not far off: IIT professor claims – up to 8 lakh cases may come in early February, third wave likely to pass by March 15

The third wave of Corona continues to wreak havoc in the country. On January 9, 1.79 lakh new cases were reported in the country. According to experts, the peak of the third wave can come in the country in early February. Then 4 to 8 lakh cases are expected to be registered daily.

However, around March 15, the third wave is also likely to cross the country. These claims have been made by Manindra Agarwal, Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at IIT Kanpur. They tell with the help of computer models how the pandemic is going to behave next.

Peak will come after 5 days in Mumbai-Delhi
According to the Indian Express, Professor Aggarwal told that the peak of the third wave will come in Mumbai on January 15. Exactly the same will happen in Delhi as well. He said that we do not have the data for the whole country, but preliminary calculations suggest that the peak of the third wave can come in the country by the beginning of February. We estimate that 4 to 8 lakh cases will be registered in the country every day at the peak.

The faster the graph has risen in Delhi and Mumbai, the faster it is likely to fall. Corona cases are increasing rapidly all over the country. Accordingly, the peak will come in the country in a month and by the middle of March, the third wave in the country will end or subside.

How the Calculation Model Works
Professor Aggarwal said that it is true that epidemics are very random in themselves, but they also have some parameters. It is simple that if an infected person comes in contact with an uninfected person, then he will spread the infection. That is, the more people get infected, the more the infection will spread because the infection is being transferred. Based on this our model works.

Read also: Corona’s third wave will last for 3 months: Experts claim – peak will come in 3 weeks, but it will take three months for the cases to decrease; 5 lakh active cases in the country now

Indian data quality better than many countries
He said that while working on our model, we saw that the quality of Indian data is better than the data of many countries. It includes many advanced countries. Many times we do not praise ourselves, but this is an issue where we can appreciate our health ministry for providing better quality data.

In the first wave, a very strict lockdown was imposed, due to which the speed of infection was doubled. During the second wave, different states employed different strategies. The states which imposed partial or complete lockdown could also slow down the pace of infection. That is, lockdown helps.

death toll not accurate
Professor Aggarwal said that many studies have revealed that between 40 and 50 lakh deaths have taken place in the country. How can so many deaths disappear from the record? We are not living in the Pathar era that no one should record so many deaths. There have been reports from several states that crematoriums were full, with long queues outside them, but all this happened within just a week or 10 days – when the second wave was at its peak. When it is seen as an average across the entire pandemic, it will not look much. Therefore, according to me, the actual number of deaths that have been recorded will be ten times more. 2 or 3 times more likely to occur.