opinion | Uddhav Thackeray is fighting a losing battle.
Political deadlock continues in Maharashtra as another Shiv Sena MLA Dilip Lande arrived in Guwahati on Friday to join the Eknath Shinde-led camp, taking the total number of Shiv Sena MLAs in the rebel party to 38. Three Shiv Sena MLAs had joined. There are also eight independent MLAs in the Shinde camp in Guwahati on Thursday, who have extended support to Shinde.
More than two-thirds of Shiv Sena MLAs are now rebels, and if there is a vertical split, they will be spared disqualification under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution (anti-defection law).
In a related development, the Shiv Sena, in a letter to the deputy speaker, has sought disqualification of 16 MLAs, including Shinde, for defying the chief whip’s order for attending the legislature party meeting. In a letter to the Shiv Sena, the Assembly Secretariat has appointed Ajay Choudhary as the leader of the Shiv Sena Legislature Party in place of Eknath Shinde.
Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya Thackeray attended a meeting at the party headquarters on Friday along with district Shiv Sena chiefs. There are reports that there is a plan to hold a public meeting of Shiv Sena at Marine Drive in Mumbai on Friday evening.
Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut met NCP supremo Sharad Pawar to discuss ways out of the current impasse. Later, Sanjay Raut claimed that the Maha Vikas Aghadi would prove majority on the floor of the House, and “if this battle is fought on the streets, we are ready for it too”. Sanjay Raut said, “I challenge them (rebel MLAs) to come on the floor of the House.”
Despite claims to the contrary, the fact remains that Uddhav Thackeray’s camp now has only 12 Shiv Sena MLAs, and Eknath Shinde has the numbers to topple the MVA government with the help of the BJP. The BJP has 106 MLAs and seven independents who are ready to support the BJP.
On Thursday, Eknath Shinde got his supporters paraded at a hotel in Guwahati and said that there is a ‘superpower’ behind us. The morale of Eknath Shinde’s camp is now very high, and it is only a matter of time before the rebels will return to Mumbai and meet the governor. On Thursday, the rebel MLAs declared Shinde their leader and raised slogans of ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’ and ‘Balasaheb Thackeray ki Jai’.
The Thackeray family is now worried that Eknath Shinde and his supporters may also take control of the 56-year-old party founded by Balasaheb Thackeray on June 19, 1966. And the arrow ‘Shiv Sena’s election symbol. Eknath Shinde has also claimed that at least 14 out of 18 Shiv Sena MPs in the Lok Sabha are in his camp. Shinde is going to declare his party the real Shiv Sena.
Uddhav Thackeray’s allies Sharad Pawar and Congress are now in trouble. On Thursday, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar said the majority decision would be taken on the floor of the House, and “let the MLAs return to Mumbai first”.
Both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar know they have lost the game, as 38 Shiv Sena MLAs are now with rebel leader Eknath Shinde. No one can say that these MLAs were taken to Guwahati by intimidation. The rebel MLAs have been camping in Guwahati for the last four days, meeting people openly and preparing to form a new government. These rebels are already in a festive mood.
On the other hand, Uddhav and his advisors are now fighting a losing battle with their backs to the wall. They are already imagining Devendra Fadnavis coming back to power with the support of rebel Shiv Sena MLAs.
This reminds me of the famous Urdu couplet (lion) that Fadnavis quoted in the assembly in 2019, when the MVA government took power. Fadnavis had then said, “Seeing my waters receding, don’t settle on my shore, I am the ocean, will come back after seeing my water level receding” (seeing my water level receding, don’t build your house in my place, I am the ocean, and I’ll be back). Fadnavis is all set to return to power and make a grand comeback.
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