New Delhi: With omicron cases spreading at an explosive rate across the globe, experts in India have predicted that India may see a third wave in February, but possibly within a month.
According to news agency ANI, IIT Hyderabad’s M Vidyasagar, who is also the head of the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, said that there will be a third wave of omicrons in India, but it will be lighter than the second wave.
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According to the Sutra model that tracks the country’s Covid-19 trajectory, the daily caseload is expected to rise as O’Microon begins to displace Delta as the dominant variant.
The formula model was developed by M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad and Maninda Agarwal of IIT Kanpur. Members of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee said that the daily Covid-19 caseload in India, which is currently around 7,500 infections, begins to displace Omicron Delta as the dominant variant, and predicted a third wave in India. Of.
“India is likely to have a third wave early next year. It should be milder than the second wave because of the rampant immunity that exists in the country. There will definitely be a third wave. Right now, we are at around 7,500. Once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant, the cases per day increase,” he told ANI.
It is unlikely that India will see more daily cases than in the second wave. “India is expected to report one lakh to two lakh cases per day which will be less than the second wave,” Maninda Agarwal said. In a “worst-case scenario”, scientists told India Today that the daily new cases in February could be in the range of 1.5 to 1.8 lakh, and this could happen if the new Omron variant is immune to the immune system acquired naturally or through vaccination. eliminates it completely.
Sharing details on the record rise in Covid-19 infections, Maninda Agarwal said the UK has high vaccine penetration (but with most mRNA vaccines), but low sero-prevalence.
The panel considers that community transmission of omicron has already been started. Vidyasagar said, “Just keep on following the proper treatment of COVID. Prevention is better than cure.” According to Vidyasagar, in the worst-case scenario, India will have no more than two lakh cases per day in case the country is hit by a third wave.
Meanwhile, experts believe that the third wave, even if less severe than the previous one, is inevitable.
The Rt value or effective reproduction value of SARS-CoV-2 virus has increased in some states including Maharashtra. An RT value of 1 means that one patient can spread the disease to another person.
In a tweet, epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu said on Tuesday that the states with increase in RT values on December 19 as compared to December 13 are Bihar, MP, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Odisha, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, West included. Bengal, Manipur and Nagaland. He said India’s effective RT as on December 19 is 0.89.
In the week ending 2 November, the RT value in Maharashtra was 0.7 and continued to rise – 0.82 (14 November), 0.96 (22 November) – before falling – 0.92 (29 November) and 0.85 (6 December). The RT price in the state has started rising again in the last two weeks: 1.08 (December 19).
According to doctors, the rising weekly caseload and RT values are an indicator of how the Covid graph will be next month.
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