After a long wait and long suspense about its election strategy, now the Congress is ready to blow the election bugle in Uttar Pradesh. For the last two days, the party’s UP in-charge Priyanka Gandhi was brainstorming with her party leaders in Lucknow on the campaign blueprint. As there is an ultimate assessment of organizational strength and the political situation, there is also a growing sense of realism and electoral pragmatism within the top leadership.
It is this realism that is forcing the party to adopt a strategy suited to its strength in UP; A strategy for a goal that can put the Congress back on the path of relevance in state politics and, if the situation arises, any post-election non-BJP government formation could be in play. The idea is to “plan for the state but focus on the core”, i.e., go for a pan-UP campaign but zero in on a select number of seats, putting the greatest focus and resources on a winnable seat and try To get back the lost ground.
A noted top leader said: “We aspire to emerge in a situation where we can be stakeholders in the formation of any non-BJP government after the elections. The realism is that the Congress is not in the race to form the next government unlike the BJP or the SP, but we are confident that we can emerge to ensure that there is no party without us.
This narrative of “no government without us” is now shaping the party’s electoral strategy. A political situation that the leadership hopes will boost the morale of party workers and project the party as a serious player in the electoral battle of UP.
Sources tell News18 that the party has already done extensive mapping of constituencies based on caste equations, past election results and its organizational strength. Through this study, it has divided the assembly seats into A+, A, B and C categories. A+ and A are the constituencies that are most promising. Of the total more than 400 seats, around 100 to 125 fall in these two categories. These are seats where the party hopes that hard work and use of resources can work in their favour.
The names of candidates for the 50-odd seats have almost been finalized by Priyanka Gandhi, who is in this top category, during her current engagements in Lucknow. The party is ready to forward these candidates so that there is no confusion and there is enough time for preparation.
Do the realities match the aspirations?
The question whether the Congress is really a contender for importance in the electoral battle or its ambition to be a stakeholder in the formation of the next government is a misplaced argument. Can a party that has been out of power in the state for more than three decades and has been witnessing a steady decline over the years, with almost no dedicated caste base, be taken seriously?
The party’s near-decimal performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when it could win just one seat in Rae Bareli, and before that in the 2017 Assembly elections, when it failed miserably despite being in alliance with the Samajwadi Party, was prominent. seen as evidence. who is in crisis. In 2017, it contested around 115 seats and could win just 6 and manage a vote share of 6.24 per cent.
In response to these stories of humiliation, Congress leaders cite old figures. He points out that the show was not as disrespectful to the party as it was in the decade before 2017. In the 2012 assembly elections, despite a huge wave in favor of the Samajwadi Party, the Congress won around 12 per cent of the vote and 28 seats. Even today’s powerful BJP was not far ahead. It got 15 per cent of the total votes and won 47 seats.
Earlier, in the 2007 assembly elections, the Congress had won 22 assembly seats and got around 9 per cent votes. The arch-rival BJP was successful in 51 seats. An underlying story of both these elections was that the Congress was able to survive despite a large consolidation of minorities in favor of the BSP or the SP.
Another factor of importance was that a 3 or 4 point increase in vote percentage can make a significant difference in the number of seats won. The Congress thinks that unlike in 2017, when there was an unprecedented polarization in favor of the BJP, pushing almost the entire opposition into a corner, the challenge of 2022 would not be in such a state of BJP dominance.
The rising anti-incumbency wave against the Yogi government, farmers’ unrest, unemployment and anti-caste castes—especially Brahmins—will be strong factors that will create a better space for opposition politics, and the Congress may also benefit from it.
Priyanka Factor- Is the organization doing better?
The question is, is Priyanka hopeful of a better future or optimistic about regaining some lost ground from the near future situation? This is despite the fact that the party today lacks big names among state leaders. Former Union minister and prominent Brahmin face Jitin Prasada’s joining the BJP added to the embarrassment. However, party leaders say that the work that has been done in the organization building in the last two years since Priyanka took over as the general secretary in-charge of the UP party is hopeful.
Since Priyanka took charge, organizational layoffs and fixing accountability have become her top priorities. A senior party functionary working with him recalls how the organizational hollowness at the grassroots level was exposed in the months following the general election last year. Even as Priyanka tried to move ahead in several cases, including the murder of Dalit tribals in Sonbhadra, the party leaders failed to capitalize on the momentum.
His first step was to convert and energize the district and city committees with renewed vigor. In the months that followed, not only were the over 500 PCCs overhauled and the 60-member strong committee cut down, district units were also revamped and the party’s base in the villages was given utmost attention.
Congress state organization secretary Anil Yadav says, “Our party now has a functional committee in all over 800 blocks and several thousand gram panchayats. The work of organizational reform is almost over, Priyanka ji’s visit is now the last opportunity for organizational review before embarking on an aggressive election campaign.
It is on the basis of these superior organizational capabilities that the party feels that it can make a difference. Going up from 2017’s 6 percent vote share in a significant way is a goal that can be achieved with some clever and focused planning. The party seriously hopes that the narrative of being a stakeholder in power or “no government without us” will capture the imagination of a disgruntled party that wants to oust the BJP, but does not like either the SP or the BSP.
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