Central Asia was once the center of global geopolitics in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, as the Great Game dominated between the British and Russian empires. Now, after the shameful withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the takeover of the Taliban, Central Asia is again emerging as the focus of the international community. Its importance emerges amid growing concern that Afghanistan could become a hotbed of global terror, threatening an unstable region and, in some years, even the US and Europe.
With most of the major powers uncertain about the future, they are expected to gain a foothold in Central Asia to keep an eye on Afghanistan. Be it the US, India, Iran, the European Union or Turkey, diplomats are fleeing to Central Asian countries. Russia, historically, has been the dominant power in the region. China’s checkbook diplomacy has also worked well, with most countries signing off on President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.
India is planning to hold a meeting on Afghanistan next month, where Central Asian countries will be invited. India’s presence in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has dwindled after its staunch support to the Ashraf Ghani regime. New Delhi is trying to work its way up to become a player in this field. External Affairs Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar has visited the region thrice this year. His last visit was to Kazakhstan for the meeting of the CICA-Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia. The talks were focused on facing the latest security challenge posed by the situation in Afghanistan. Secular governments in the neighborhood have long faced Islamist groups seeking to impose Sharia rule. Since the Taliban victory, these organizations are regrouping with renewed vigor.
Since the breakup of the USSR, successive Indian governments have tried to forge relations with these former Soviet republics. While historical links exist, connectivity remains a challenge. After 1991, India geared up to enhance economic and political ties. About 80 percent of the uranium needed for India’s nuclear power plants comes from Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan has also started exporting uranium to India from 2019.
“Central Asia is on the public radar because of Afghanistan but successive Indian governments have recognized the region as important. After the Central Asian nations became independent, New Delhi referred to it as part of its extended neighbourhood. Fight against the Taliban India used its Central Asian neighbors to send aid to the commander of the Northern Alliance, Ahmed Shah Masood, in AD 3. Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation says, “India was previously constrained by lack of funds and connectivity problems still persist. ”
Connectivity is a major hurdle for India. The north-south corridor, which could have made a difference, could not proceed because of US sanctions on Iran. Work still continues in fit and spurt. In the 1990s, India’s Consul General in Soviet Central Asia, Ashok Mukherjee, helped transform India’s relations with the five newly independent countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. He spoke of following an Islamic-tribal religion in the region as a shield against religious extremism.
“Before the Central Asian nations came under the influence of communist Russia, they practiced a liberal Islam far from the rigid Wahhabi school. While efforts are now being made by Sunni organizations to change this, Islam practiced an insurance for the world. There is policy,'” says Mukherjee.
So far the Taliban has not instilled much confidence. Women are marginalized again, violent attacks on Shia places of worship continue, and the Taliban themselves face a major challenge from ISIS-K, which is spread across parts of the country. Al-Qaeda, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, Lashkar-e-Taiba are all present and have close links with Taliban factions. Therefore, despite repeated assurances from the Doha Taliban leadership that Islamist terrorist groups will not be allowed to operate against other countries, a question mark remains whether the Taliban are able or willing to keep that promise. .
After hastily ending America’s longest-running war, Washington is aware of the mess left behind and the threats posed to America by Islamic groups. Therefore, over-the-horizon attacks are part of the US strategic doctrine for Afghanistan. For this a friendly government in Central Asia would be a great help. But Russia and China are in no mood to allow the US to break into what they see as their sphere of influence. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is primarily a Central Asian grouping that ensures that Western powers are kept out. Moscow is fine with China funding construction and infrastructure projects, but is wary of Beijing’s attempt to increase its political influence in the region.
The Central Asian nations were once part of the USSR and are closely associated with Moscow. Russia regards the region as its backyard and is closely tied to its own security interests. Moscow is concerned that the Western powers will use this opportunity to encircle Russia. NATO’s activities in the Black and Baltic Seas, its efforts to promote democracy and regime change in Ukraine and Georgia are of great concern to President Vladimir Putin. The current state of Afghanistan’s flow gives the US the perfect opportunity to pursue diplomacy in Central Asia.
Indeed, under the leadership of President Biden, American efforts in this direction are increasing rapidly. President Shaykat Miziyoyev of Uzbekistan was received by President Trump at the White House last year. Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov was in the US in July and met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Discussions on regional security are going on. The US now regards Uzbekistan as an important ally and wants it for intelligence and surveillance operations in Afghanistan. It also announced its commitment to the Uzbek-Afghanistan-Pakistan corridor to facilitate Uzbekistan’s access to the Indian Ocean. US Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman was in Tashkent in early October, before her visit to India and Pakistan.
However, Uzbekistan has rejected any suggestion of a possible deployment of US troops there. Moscow’s unhappiness over the proposal was evident when its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said former Soviet states did not want US troops in their respective countries.
To blunt the determined US thrust in Central Asia, Russia asked Tajikistan to host a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, in which Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are included. At present, Russia’s holding operation is in progress. Whether it survives remains to be seen.
(It appeared in the print edition as “In Grand Central”)
.