Maharashtra Political Crisis: Can BJP Repeat ‘Operation Lotus’ Like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh?

Maharashtra LOP Devendra Fadnavis and Chief Minister
Image Source: PTI

Maharashtra LOP Devendra Fadnavis and Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray (right)

Highlight

  • Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde is camping in Surat with some other party MLAs.
  • Shinde’s move has put a question mark on the stability of the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government
  • Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrakant Patil denies any connection of his party to the current crisis

Maharashtra Political Crisis: The Uddhav Thackeray-led government in Maharashtra appears to be in trouble when Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde and some of his party MLAs are incommunicado and camping in Surat, a day after suspected cross-voting in the MLC polls, raising questions over it. Huh. Stability of the MVA distribution.

As Shinde has yet to clarify his stand, Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrakant Patil denied any link of his party to the current political developments, but also said that if the BJP accepts Shinde’s proposal to form the government. “Definitely consider”.

Speaking in Delhi, NCP chief Sharad Pawar said attempts were being made to topple the Maharashtra government, which he said was happening for the third time. He also said that Uddhav Thackeray will handle the situation which is an internal matter of Shiv Sena.

What do the numbers say?

In the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, BJP emerged as the single largest party winning 106 seats in the 2019 assembly elections, Shiv Sena 55, NCP 53, Congress 44, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi 3, Samajwadi Party, AIMIM and Prahar Janshakti Party. Won two seats. each.

MNS, CPI-M, PWP, Swabhimani Paksha, Rashtriya Samaj Party, Jansurajya Shakti Party and Krantikari Shetkari Paksha won one seat each. There are 13 independent MLAs.

The BJP and Shiv Sena fought the elections with a pre-poll alliance but did not form the government together after there was no agreement on the chief minister’s post. Talks were held with the candidates of both the parties for the 2.5 year tenure of the CM, but the talks did not prove fruitful.

The nearly 3-decade-old alliance of Shiv Sena-BJP finally broke down, while the former formed the government with NCP and Congress, calling it the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, while the BJP emerged as the main opposition.

Will Uddhav be able to save MVA from the current political crisis?

With Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde and other party MLAs now camping in Gujarat, the land is not easy for the MVA government led by CM Uddhav Thackeray.

Sources say that Shinde is not happy with the conduct of the party. Meanwhile, the BJP, which emerged as the single largest party in the 2019 assembly polls, is low-profile saying it has nothing to do with recent political developments, but added that if they “definitely consider” a proposal ” will do. Shinde will form the government.

Meanwhile, leaders of the NCP and Congress, other constituents of the MVA, however, said there was no threat to the stability of the state government.

Chance for BJP to form government in Maharashtra?

The current political crisis in Maharashtra is not new to the BJP. In fact, the saffron party has taken advantage of such opportunities to topple the government whenever it has been in the opposition as the single largest party.

Earlier, the BJP was able to form government in Karnataka in 2019, and Madhya Pradesh in 2020, when a section of legislators from the ruling coalition in the respective states rebelled against their own governments.

Madhya Pradesh Political Crisis 2020

In March 2020, the then CM Kamal Nath-led government was toppled after then Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia – who was considered close to Rahul Gandhi – revolted against his own government with considerable support from other party MLAs .

On 5 March 2020, 10 MLAs (6 Congress members, 2 from BSP, 1 from SP and 1 Independent), flew to Delhi, but 6 of them initially returned.

The remaining 4 MLAs then went to Bengaluru, where Congress MLA Hardeep Dang resigned from the party. The remaining three MLAs soon returned and denied the claims made by other Congress leaders, that they were part of horse-trading.

On 10 March 2020, Jyotiraditya Scindia met PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, after which he resigned from the Congress party.

Scindia joined the BJP the next day on March 11 in the presence of BJP President JP Nadda. During his joining, he slammed the Kamal Nath government, other Congress leaders for not giving importance to the party.

Scindia was fielded by the BJP as a Rajya Sabha candidate from Madhya Pradesh.

floor test of kamal nath government

As the crisis continued, the matter went to the Supreme Court (SC), which ordered a floor test. The top court ordered that the floor test should be conducted by 5 pm on 20 March 2020.

However, even before the floor test began, Kamal Nath tendered his resignation in a press conference on 20 March as he did not have the numbers to remain in the government.

Subsequently, all 22 rebels joined the BJP on March 22 in the presence of former Congress MLA JP Nadda and Shivraj Singh Chouhan was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh once again on March 23.

Karnataka political crisis

In the Karnataka Assembly Elections 2017, the BJP emerged as the single largest party winning 105 seats, but fell short of an absolute majority to form the government. Although BJP Legislature Party leader BS Yediyurappa was sworn in as the CM, a floor test was conducted since his government was in a minority, in which he failed to win.

As a result, Congress with 79 MLAs and JDS with 37 MLAs formed a coalition government in Karnataka. But in less than 2 years of Congress+JDS government, a political crisis started emerging.

In 2019, 15 rebel MLAs, including 12 from Congress and 3 from JD-S, decided not to attend the legislative session, while two Congress MLAs (B Nagendra and Shrimant Patil) were admitted to private hospitals in Bengaluru and Mumbai.

In the 225-member Assembly, the strength of allies in the House, including the Speaker (from the Congress), came down to 99 (65 out of 79 for Congress and 34 out of 37 for JD-S).

After weeks of turmoil, the Congress-JD(S) government was reduced to 101 seats, while the BJP retained 105 seats.

The matter went to the Supreme Court and a floor test was held in which Kumarasamy lost the trust vote and resigned.

BJP won the trust vote and on 26 July 2019 BS Yediyurappa was once again sworn in as the Chief Minister of Karnataka.

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