New Delhi: Even as fears regarding the next wave of the coronavirus pandemic continue unabated, several studies have found that a third wave of COVID-19 could hit India by the end of August.
Earlier on July 7, active Kovid-19 cases in the country increased after 55 days. After 45,892 new Covid-19 cases were reported, the number of active cases in India rose slightly to 460,704.
Cases rose again on July 14 when active cases increased by 2,095. The recently released data by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare showed that 73 districts still have a positivity rate of more than 10 per cent, which means that out of 100 tested, 10 people turned out to be positive. The northeastern states have 47 districts with high positivity rates.
The central government had said earlier on Friday that the possibility of a new outbreak of the viral infection cannot be ruled out and said the next 125 days would be very crucial to contain the disease.
Dr VK Paul, Member (Health), NITI Aayog stressed on adopting COVID-appropriate behavior and said that now there is a need to stop the spread of the infection.
The steady trend in Covid-19 cases can be confirmed by the regular and rapid decline in the weekly decline in active and daily cases over the last two months.
The active caseload burden declined by 22.61 per cent in the week ended May 27 and the decline saw a decline of 30.18 per cent and 31.44 per cent in the next two weeks between May 28 and June 3 and weeks 4-10, respectively.
Adding to the concerns regarding the third Covid wave, India began to see an alarming sign as the rate of decline in active cases decreased week by week.
The week ending June 24 saw a decline of 23.26 per cent in the active Covid-19 caseload burden, which came down to 16.84 per cent in the week ended July 1, from 10 per cent in the week ended July 8. With the current active caseload burden of the country at 6.17 per cent in the last week ended July 15, there are 4,30,422 cases.
The decline in the number of daily cases has also slowed. The lowest point so far this month in daily fresh cases was seen on July 12 with 32,906 cases, but since then the number has risen and cases have regularly stuck in the 40,000-case limit.
On May 8, 3,91,232 cases were registered, while on May 31 it came down to 1,75,167 and on June 30 it came down to 46,979.
The average of confirmed cases has touched an all-time low with 36,349 cases on July 12, but thereafter the average has started increasing day by day and the current average is 39,125 confirmed cases in a day.
The daily recoveries are still above the daily fresh cases, but the scale has declined sharply. On May 20, 2,59,551 new cases were registered, while 3,57,295 Kovid patients were cured on the same day.
Moreover, reports of an increase in the ‘R’ factor or fertility rate of the coronavirus in some states and union territories have raised fresh concerns.
The ‘R’ factor is a mathematical representation indicating the speed at which the Kovid-19 infection is spreading in the country, which is an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading.
Researchers from Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences (IMSc) revealed that the R-value of coronavirus has increased for the country.
Their analysis showed that it has increased from 0.78 on 30 June to 0.88 in the first week of July. This is despite the low number of new cases across the country, PTI reported.
This analysis has further added to the concerns regarding the COVID-19 pandemic as many states and union territories are in the process of gradually declining the etiquette matters.
According to the analysis, the total R-value in India was estimated to be 1.37 between March 9 and April 21, when the second wave of Covid was at its peak. However, it dropped to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1 and then to 1.10 between April 29 and May 7.
The R-value, which was later estimated to be around 0.98 between May 9 and 11, decreased to 0.82 from May 14 to May 30.
The R-value was 0.78 from 15 May to 26 June and 0.88 from 20 June to 7 July.
In view of the same, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) earlier on Wednesday issued an advisory to the States and Union Territories to ensure that all people follow the appropriate COVID precautions.
Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla, who has written to chief secretaries and administrators of states and union territories in this regard, pointed out that some have an ‘R’ factor (reproductive number which indicates the speed at which the infection is spreading). ) have increased. States are a matter of concern.
Earlier on Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with the Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, Maharashtra and Kerala to discuss the situation related to Kovid.
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Reiterating that Corona is not over, Prime Minister Modi stressed on the need to follow protocol and avoid crowds as many states have densely populated metros in the meeting.
The Prime Minister’s remarks come as the situation especially in Kerala and Maharashtra, which are seeing a surge in cases, is similar to the situation before the second Covid wave in the country.
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