Boris Johnson’s Tories now face potentially tough elections for three seats in parliament.
It was classic Boris Johnson on a trip to Cairo when he threw yet another political grenade at his enemies in the UK Conservative Party. Since he was ousted by them nearly a year ago, the former premier has been determined to retain the influence of a leader and expand the narrative of betrayal – pocketing hundreds of thousands in attendance in the process.
It was all in his dramatic resignation from parliament late on Friday – a “witch-hunt” led by politicians still angry over Brexit and an ungrateful Tory party trashing Johnson’s achievements under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Motivated by self-preservation and retribution, the announcement appeared to be timed to cause maximum harm to the current resident of 10 Downing Street.
Johnson’s move represents an immediate, significant challenge to Sunak. His Tories now face potentially difficult elections for three parliament seats – two Johnson allies, Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams, also quit – and Sunak will be desperate to avoid adding to the poor’s losses in local elections, So close to the expected national vote in 2024.
The arrest of Nicola Sturgeon, the former leader of the Scottish National Party, at the weekend added to the sense of crisis in the face of the craze. The SNP’s explosion is expected to benefit the UK’s opposition Labor Party, which has a double-digit lead over the Tories in national polls.
But the key question for Sunak and the Conservative Party – and for investors trying to assess where the UK is headed after years of Tory turmoil – is how much damage Johnson plans to do or do from the sidelines. Can That’s the implicit threat in Johnson’s all-out attack on Sunak’s government, and his warning that he is exiting front-line politics “for now”.
Over the weekend, Johnson’s allies laid out a scenario in which Sunak leads him to a landslide defeat and the party returns to the man who won an 80-seat majority in 2019.
You voted for Brexit – the establishment stopped it.
you voted @Boris Johnson The establishment has thrown him out.
Who is in charge here… the voter or the drop?#blobonomics#borisjohnson
— Jake Berry MP (@JakeBerry) June 10, 2023
Jacob Rees-Mogg, who received a knighthood from Johnson in his controversial honors list, said: “His dramatic move – and his own indication that he will seek another parliamentary berth – allows him to return as Conservative leader.” puts it in prime position for.” wrote in the Mail on Sunday, published on Friday just before his bombshell announcement.
Yet based on interviews with Tory MPs from across the party, this is the minority view. He pointed to the fact that only two aides followed Johnson as evidence of Johnson’s fading influence. It echoed their failed and embarrassing little rebellion against the whimsical renegotiation of the Brexit deal signed by Johnson.
A Tory MP, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Johnson would face a Conservative backlash if he caused problems for the hawk and was seen to have played a role in the election defeat. Another called Johnson’s antics a farce, and there was widespread doubt that Johnson would be motivated by being opposition leader. Others said Johnson’s departure would strengthen Sunak’s position by removing a harmful distraction.
“It gives Sunak a real chance to make his mark on the Tory party,” said Sophie Stowers from the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, “because the ghost of Johnson is finally gone from Parliament.”
What MPs described is effectively a cross between Johnson’s Brexit-campaign from 2016 to 2019, the buccaneering version and the post-pandemic version, weighed down by scandals and cracked down on by police for breaking Covid-19 rules He helped in the inheritance of fines. Write
Johnson’s resignation came on the day the US announced federal charges against former President Donald Trump, and it was not surprising that some Tory lawmakers referred to the pair. It’s a frequent comparison, given that Johnson and Trump were natural allies on Brexit and shared a populist conservatism that leaned on appeals to working-class voters to win power.
One of their differences is how his political outlook is working for him now. Trump’s grip on the Republican Party remains intact, while what Tory lawmakers on Friday saw as Johnson’s Trumpian outburst further alienated him in the party.
One major reason is that Johnson’s electoral appeal was diminished by the “Partygate” scandal over rules being broken in Downing Street during the pandemic. Johnson often argues – and did again in his tirade against Sunak on Friday – that he was ousted as prime minister with the Tories trailing Labor by only a few points in the polls.
In reality, the slide was already dramatic, and polls showed that a majority of Britons thought Johnson was doing a poor job. The party had already begun to lose safe seats, and the fear of losing the next election was a major reason why so many Tory MPs wanted to pull the plug.
Johnson, in terms of his own electoral popularity and achievements, including his constituencies of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is also undermined by the fact that by resigning, he is avoiding being put to the electoral test. According to one Tory MP, the party is expected to lose the seat.
Other allegations in his letter are also rebuttable. The day Sunak returned from a two-day trip to Washington, Johnson questioned why the government had “so passively abandoned the possibility of a free trade deal with the US.” Yet Johnson – who said an FTA would be a Brexit prize – was in the Oval Office when President Joe Biden first made it clear a deal was not on the table, and Johnson’s administration has regularly pointed out that an FTA was not realistic. .
Tory MP and Johnson critic Tobias Ellwood told GB News: “Johnson has gone his own way, kicking and screaming with lots of drama, causing damage.” “His actions are tantamount to rebellion.”
Johnson has been on the ropes before and bounced back – he is known in Westminster as “Teflon” or the “greased piglet” – including after he resigned from Theresa May’s government in 2018 in protest of her Brexit plans. was written. He was the party leader a year later.
Sunak has yet to comment on Johnson’s departure. A Downing Street official said the optimistic view is that the Johnson drama fails. The pessimistic view, the official said, is that it becomes a soap opera, costing the Tories the election.
What is clear is that Johnson’s animosity for Sunak is not abating. People familiar with the matter say Johnson blamed Sunak for not interfering with Parliament’s investigation of “Partygate” and for not honoring his request to give life peers in the House of Lords to allies including Dorries and Adams.
Sunak’s office has denied being included on Johnson’s honors list.
By resigning before the House of Commons – which has a Conservative working majority of more than 60 – voted to suspend him, Johnson ensured that the disgrace did not hang over him. This indicates that she is louder and more critical of Sunak, even if from a distance. The former Telegraph columnist is a master of political incitement.
Politics professor Tim Bell said, “Even in the long run I wouldn’t bet on Johnson’s return. But I fully expect him and his die-hard fans in the Tory media to spare Sunak a world of pain between now and the general election.” I will take you.” at Queen Mary, University of London. “Anything that hurts Sunak helps Boris.”
At the very least, Johnson has again managed to shift the Westminster focus back to himself, and away from what Sunak wants to talk about. The three polls built around the Johnson-Sunak rivalry are likely to survive.
But according to Stowers in UK in a Changing Europe, the biggest problem facing Sunak is how Johnson’s departure re-opens cracks in Tory support.
It has been a long-running struggle for Sunak, as he tries to appease working-class voters in the north of England and the middle class in the south – who uniquely worked together for Johnson in the last general election. had come.
“Unfortunately for Sunak, Johnson’s departure highlights how the coalition of voters united by him has gone into the 2019 election,” she said.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)