WASHINGTON: The rise in energy and food prices resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could exacerbate current food security concerns in the Middle East and Africa and fuel growing social unrest, World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said.
Germany will host a virtual meeting of agriculture ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies on Friday to discuss the impact of the invasion amid growing concerns about stabilizing food markets.
“There will be significant implications for the Middle East, particularly Africa, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa,” Reinhart told Reuters in an interview, which was already experiencing food insecurity.
“I don’t want to be melodramatic, but it’s not too far-fetched that food insecurity and riots were part of the story behind the Arab Spring,” she said, adding that the past two years have seen an increase in successful and unsuccessful coups. ,
refers to the Arab Spring a series of pro-democracy protests And the insurgency that began in 2010 in the Middle East and North Africa began in Tunisia and spread to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain.
Sudden increases in food prices can lead to social unrest, as happened in 2007–2008 and again in 2011, when increases in global food prices were linked to riots in more than 40 countries.
Agricultural commodities were already up 35% in January compared to a year ago, and are expected to rise further due to the war as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil, the World Bank said. Reported last month. , a few days after the start of the Russian offensive. Moscow called its actions in Ukraine a “special operation”.
A rise in energy and food prices could prompt policymakers to implement more subsidies, experts say, adding to the heavy debt of many low-income countries, of which about 60 or so already Are in or near debt crisis.
The bank warned last month that the effects could be particularly harsh in the Middle East and North Africa, where countries such as Egypt import up to 80% of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Mozambique is also a major importer of wheat and oil.
Reinhart said that countries in Central Asia also suffered significant economic challenges Given its close economic and trade ties with Russia, which the International Monetary Fund expects to slide this year into recession as a result of Western sanctions.
“It affects their currencies, and there are already signs of runs on banks, coupled with confidence issues, food insecurity, and (drop in) remittances,” she said, citing potential refugee flows as a further complication. pointing in.
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//$(function() {
var layout = $(content_selector);
var st = 0;
///});
}
}
});
/*}
};*/
})(jQuery);