New Delhi: India on Saturday, 16 April questioned the methodology of the World Health Organization to estimate the COVID-19 mortality rate in the country.
According to media reports, India said that such mathematical modeling cannot be applied to estimate the death figures for such a vast country of geographical size and population.
In response to a New York Times article titled ‘India is Stalling WHO’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public’, and on 16 April, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare issued a statement saying that India had on several occasions Share your concerns. Global health body on methodology used.
The ministry said that India is having regular and intensive technical exchanges with WHO on this issue, using mathematical modeling approach for Tier II countries, which includes India.
“India’s basic objection is not with the outcome (whatever it may be), but the methodology adopted for it.
“The model gives two highly different sets of additional mortality estimates when using data from Tier I countries and unverified data from 18 Indian states. Such wide variation in estimates is the validity and accuracy of such modeling exercise.” raises concern about the issue,” the Union Health Ministry said in a statement.
According to the Union Health Ministry, India has shared its concerns with the methodology with other member states through a series of formal communications, including six letters issued to the WHO (November 17, December 20, 2021; December 28). , 2021; January 11). , 2022; February 12, 2022; and March 2, 2022) and the virtual meeting held on December 16, 2021, December 28, 2021, January 6, 2022, February 25, 2022 and the SEARO regional webinar held on February 10, 2022.
Specific questions have been raised by India with other member countries including China, Iran, Bangladesh, Syria, Ethiopia and Egypt during these exchanges.
The statement said the concern is particularly concerned with how the statistical model projects estimates for India’s geographic size and population, and how it fits in with other countries that have smaller populations. .
“WHO has not yet shared confidence intervals for current statistical models in different countries,” the statement said.
It said, “India has emphasized that if the model is accurate and reliable, it should be validated by running it for all Tier I countries and if the result of such exercise can be shared with all member states.” is,” it added. The model assumes a Inverse relationship between monthly temperature and monthly average deaths.
All the states of India have widely varied seasonal patterns. “Thus, national-level mortality estimates based on data from these 18 states are statistically unproven,” the statement said.
The modeling for Tier II countries is based on the Global Health Estimation (GHE) 2019. GHE itself is a guess.
The current modeling practice appears to be providing its own set of estimates based on yet another set of historical estimates, disregarding the data available with the country, the statement said.
“It is not clear why GHE 2019 has been used to estimate the expected death figures for India, while for Tier 1 countries, their own historical datasets were used, when it was repeatedly highlighted. It was done that India has a robust system of data collection and management,” the statement said.
WHO set standard patterns for age and sex for countries with reported data (61 countries) and then normalized them to other countries, including India, that had no such distribution in mortality data, so that age-sex mortality can be calculated. delivery to india
According to the statement, the age-sex distribution of estimated deaths in India was based on the age-sex distribution of deaths reported by four countries (Costa Rica, Israel, Paraguay and Tunisia).
“The test positivity rate for Covid in India was not uniform across the country at any point of time. However, this change in the COVID positivity rate within India was not considered for modeling purposes,” the statement said.
“Furthermore, India has conducted COVID-19 testing at a much faster pace than the WHO advises. India has retained molecular testing as the preferred testing methods and has used rapid antigen only for screening purposes. Whether these factors have been used in the model for India is still unanswered,” the statement added.
(with PTI inputs)
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