With 182 candidates, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has set the Gujarat election arena on fire. However, it is one of the states in India where the Third Front has never flourished and the fight has always been between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), except in 1990, when the Janata Dal emerged as the single largest party, Election Commission by News18 shows the analysis of the data.
Between 1962 and 1985, the Congress emerged as the single largest party in the state. Except in 1975, it got clear majority everywhere. BJP came into picture in 1980 and within next 15 years, it became the largest party and is in this position till date.
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Data after the 1962 elections show that the state had given a clear mandate to a single party except in 1990 and 1975. However, political parties other than the BJP and the Congress have also tried to claim the state. But they could not succeed.
In 1962, the state had 154 assembly seats, which increased to 168 in 1967, and remained at 182 since 1975. This was done in accordance with the gradual increase in population and territorial modification of the state’s constituencies.
Before BJP
During the early elections of 1962 and 1967, C Rajagopalachari’s Swatantra Party was the second largest party in the state. In the 1962 elections, it won 26 seats and 35.31% vote share, rising to 66 seats and 43.25% vote share in 1967. The party merged with the Indian Lok Dal in the early 1970s.
In the 1972 and 1975 elections, the Indian National Congress (Organization) under the leadership of Hitendra K. Desai won 16 seats (28.95% vote share) and 56 seats (43.06% vote share) respectively. In 1977 it merged with the Janata Party.
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Congress was winning Gujarat since 1962. But in 1975, it could not win a clear majority in the elections, even though it was the largest party in the state with 75 seats.
Entry of BJP
In the 1980 assembly elections, the Janata Party (JP) won 21 seats and a vote share of 27.19%. By this election, the BJP came into the picture and stood at the third position with nine seats and nearly 20% vote share. In the next assembly election, in 1985, the BJP remained the third largest party after the Congress and the Janata Party. The Congress became the single largest party with 149 seats – a record that has not been broken. Janata Party came second with 14 seats and 25.11% vote share. BJP got 11 seats and 21.43% vote share.
BJP’s seats and vote share in the state started increasing, but the 1990 elections were different for the state’s history.
Janata Dal was the largest party in 1990
The 1990 election was the only time that a political party other than the Congress or the BJP emerged as the single largest party. The Janata Dal won 70 seats and 36.25% vote share, while the grand old party slipped to third place and got 33 seats and about 31% vote share. Furthermore, it saw the rise of the BJP as the second largest party. The BJP got 67 seats with a vote share of around 34%, leaving behind the Congress.
How 2022 could be important
The BJP has been ruling the state continuously for nearly three decades. Even though the Congress has been out of power since the late 1990s, it remains the second largest party with over 30% vote share in the state. While several senior players from the state have attempted to make a mark in the last three decades, AAP appears to be the most aggressive as it has fielded candidates in all 182 seats.
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Gujarat is one of the few states where AAP is challenging the BJP. In Delhi and Punjab, AAP succeeded in wooing the voters by wresting the state from the hands of the Congress.
In the 2017 elections, AAP entered the state with around 30 candidates but failed to win a single seat. Since then, it has managed to garner seats in local bodies in the state.
The December 8 results will tell whether the state continues with its traditional voting pattern or will welcome a new trend
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