When officials talk about the “Lebanonization” of Jenin, they usually have in mind what happened on June 19, when the IDF entered the city on a routine mission to arrest terrorist suspects.
but what is that operation known as The “terrorist capital” of the West Bank Nothing was out of the ordinary.
As the soldiers were leaving, a mighty roadside bomb blast, wounding seven soldiers and damaging IDF armored vehicles. There was fierce firing on the soldiers as well.
Following the incident, there were many calls for a wider IDF operation in Jenin and the northern West Bank – an “Operation Defensive Shield 2” – to prevent it from becoming like southern Lebanon and to stop the “Lebanonization” of Jenin.
However, there is another Lebanese model that the IDF sought to prevent with the start of its operation on Monday: the scenario where the enemy is allowed to grow to dangerous proportions before decisive military action is taken.
How to avoid the mistakes you make with Lebanon?
United Nations Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War of 2006, called for the disarmament of Hezbollah and the cessation of any armed forces south of the Litani River, except for the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL.
Neither of these commitments was ever upheld, and Hezbollah – funded and controlled by Iran – has increased its rocket arsenal from an estimated 15,000 on the eve of the Second Lebanon War to 130,000–150,000 mortars and rockets today.
Israel watched this build up for years but chose not to act. Why? Because he wanted to avoid another big conflict. Although that goal is understandable, it has allowed a greater threat to grow inside Lebanon. The cost of eliminating that threat now will be much higher than it was 10 years ago.
Undoubtedly, this Lebanese model influenced decision makers today when considering the relatively large-scale operation in Jenin. The events of 19 June gave a clear indication of where things were headed. Additional evidence came when a few days later a terrorist cell unsuccessfully attempted to launch a rocket from Jenin into northern Israel.
The dilemma facing the IDF then became clear: when would you act? Do you act now when the terrorist infrastructure has not yet grown to the point where it poses a dramatic threat, or do you wait – as was done in Lebanon – until the enemy is fully disarmed? Shouldn’t you be equipped?
monday action Showed that the IDF has chosen the former approach. In doing so, it turned to what might be called the Syrian Formula.
Why should the IDF use the Syrian formula?
Syrian formula implies continued operations inside Syria The IDF has taken initiatives over the past decade to prevent Iran from establishing forward bases from which to attack Israel.
Those actions, surgical strikes on everything from weapons depots to suspected missile sites to convoys carrying sophisticated weapons from Iran to Hezbollah, have prevented Iran from achieving its strategic goals inside Syria. Despite its best efforts, Iran has been unable to replicate the Hezbollah model established in Lebanon in Syria.
Israel learned from the experience of Hezbollah. It is better to act against a threat when it is small and manageable, rather than allowing it to turn into something sinister before you act. And that’s what the IDF is doing now in Jenin: taking action while rocket-launching capabilities are still primitive, while roadside bomb-making capabilities are still limited, and before Iran has succeeded — as That he is trying to change – Jenin is a strategic threat to Israel.
By taking action now, the IDF hopes to avoid more widespread fighting in the city in the future. By taking action now, it is also acknowledging that the strategy it adopted in Operation Break the Wave, launched in March 2022 following a surge in terror, has met with only limited success.
Nightly raids and arrests inside Palestinian cities, including Jenin, have not been able to reverse the terrorist trend, and so far this year (28) almost as many people have been killed in terrorist attacks as in 2002 (33) Were. , something different was sought; Some kind of operation was needed to contain the terrorist infrastructure that was growing with the help of Iran and was becoming more threatening.
Last week, many were stunned when it emerged that the Mossad had managed to capture and interrogate the mastermind of a planned attack on Israelis in Cyprus from inside Iran. This shows Israel’s long reach and its ability to operate on Iranian soil.
Releasing part of the interrogation video was meant to signal to the Iranians that Israel could reach them in their backyard. But two people can play that game, and what the Iranians in Jenin are trying to do is set up a base of operations against Israel in the middle of the country.
Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ziad al-Nakhleh said in an interview with the Iranian Al-Wefaq newspaper on Saturday that the anti-Israeli actions in the West Bank reflect instructions coming from Iran. In mid-June, al-Nakhleh visited Iran.
“The directive issued by Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to arm the West Bank had a significant impact on the region,” he said. “Efforts were made to implement this directive, which included arms smuggling and purchases from the Israelis. Its aim was to bring about a qualitative change in the Palestinian situation and to increase resistance operations in the West Bank.
He added that Khamenei reiterated to him “the importance of developing West Bank weapons and resistance activities” during his recent visit to Iran. This process requires the efforts of the Palestinians and the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Al-Nakhleh added: “In terms of practical support, it is important to clarify that the assistance provided by the Islamic Republic to the Palestinian people is significant. Assistance includes security and logistical support, training, economic assistance and humanitarian assistance to the families of martyrs and prisoners. While the Islamic Republic has contributed to building a resistance infrastructure in Palestine, the extent of economic aid should not be exaggerated.
This is exactly the same “resistance infrastructure” that the IDF, as it has successfully done in Syria over the past decade, is now targeting in Jenin, while it is still in its early stages – and before it goes awry in Lebanon. reach the ratio.