Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan can be seen running from his chopper to the rally venues these days, as he packs in 10 rallies a day and finishes each in flat 20 minutes. He even campaigned on Diwali day with four rallies. His political adversary, Congress’s Kamal Nath, too, held small sabhas in Chhindwara till late evening, again a rare sight. These two images exhibit how close the election in Madhya Pradesh has become.
In an election where no particular issue seems to be the sweeping force, both the BJP and the Congress know the poll could go down to the wire. “Mamla tight hai (the election is close),” is what one hears from many voters on the ground. It was so in 2018, too, when just a 0.3% vote difference separated both parties.
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The Congress won 114 seats against the BJP’s 109 seats, although the Congress lagged in vote-share. This time, the BJP seemed to have started slow and the Congress confidence was sky high. In the last one month, the BJP appears to have come back strongly powered by the PM’s campaign. Some say both parties are in a 100+ seat position, and ultimately the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Independents could prove crucial.
CORRUPTION, UNEMPLOYMENT MATTER?
News18 travelled to all parts of the state over the last fortnight, from Bhopal to Indore, Gwalior, Morena, Jabalpur and Chhindwara to speak to the voters. The fatigue with Chouhan’s face does exist, but it has been blunted by his popular ‘Mukhyamantri Ladli Behana Yojana’, in which 1.3 crore women have got six installments so far of Rs 1,000-1,250 per month. The women voters, who have anyway batted for the BJP, have solidified behind the party even more strongly now. But the men voters are a far more divided lot, with some even offended with money being directly given to the women folk in their family. The men farmers get Rs 1,000 per month from the government under the Kisan Nidhi scheme, which is less than what women get.
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An underlying sentiment in Madhya Pradesh is the issue of corruption and unemployment in the Chouhan regime. A number of voters told News18 that corruption is prevalent at lower levels in the government and nothing much has happened on the job front for the youth. But do people vote on such issues is a matter of debate, as many eventually vote on caste and party lines, or who the candidate is.
THE FREEBIES WAR
While Kamal Nath is stressing on the issue of corruption and unemployment, the BJP has taken to issues like the Ram Temple to keep the election centered on Hindutva. The BJP is essentially asking voters to focus on Narendra Modi’s face in MP, and the importance of making Modi the PM again in 2024.
Many voters are also divided over the ‘freebies war’. Some are happy with the BJP’s promises of ‘Ladli Behana Yojana’ and the promised hike in procurement price of wheat and paddy. The very popular ‘Ladli Laxmi scheme’ of Chouhan which has been operational for over a decade in MP, will see a girl child getting Rs 2 lakh over a period of time, up from Rs 1.43 lakh presently. But many of these promises translate a bit less than what the Congress is promising, like Rs 2.5 lakh for the girl child, Rs 1 lakh on her marriage, Rs 1,500 per month for every woman in the state and Rs 1,500 per month as old age pension. On electricity, the BJP is promising first 100 units of power at Rs 100, while the Congress is promising 100 units of free power.
“The Congress is offering much more, but that is if they come to power. The BJP is already giving a lot…” a group of elderly women told News18 in rural Gwalior.
What has come as a fillip to the BJP’s campaign in Madhya Pradesh is the PM’s last week’s announcement to extend the Centre’s free ration scheme for poor households for the next five years. But the voters know they will continue to get the free rations even if the BJP loses in the state. The government employees in MP are enthused by the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) promise of the Congress as well. In short, the ‘11 guarantees’ of the Congress have travelled far and wide in the state among the voters as they were announced quite early, News18 found.
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Ultimately, the leadership issue could be the difference-maker in the elections in Madhya Pradesh. ‘MP Maange Kamal Nath’ is the slogan of the Congress, with Nath to be the CM if the party wins and there being no challenge to the same unlike last time when Jyotiraditya Scindia was a challenger. This is also expected to be Nath’s last election at 76 years of age so he is looking at the electorate for his last hurrah and citing how he was unfairly dislodged from the chair in 2020. In the BJP camp, the CM question is wide open, with not many saying that Chouhan will be chosen even if the BJP wins. The party is telling people to vote on Modi’s face, like its slogan ‘MP Ke Mann Mein Modi’, and trust Modi to choose the CM.
Only the results on December 3 will resolve the Madhya Pradesh mystery.