Did Israel use the IDF Home Front command as a fake out weapon to surprise Iran?
The Jerusalem Post has confirmed that long-range missiles launched from aircraft caused the attack on an Iranian Air Force facility at Isfahan, and multiple sources confirmed to the New York Times that this was Israel.
Yet only a few days ago, the IDF Home Front Command lifted basically all restrictions on normal life in Israel, something which suggested that Jerusalem was not that close to striking back.
A false impression that Israel would not strike back
It suggested this because if the Jewish state was close to striking back, this would make another counter-strike from the Islamic Republic more likely, in which case it would be dangerous and foolish to lift home from restrictions which could expose Israeli civilians to more risk in the event of an Iranian attack.
And yet Israel decided to lift the restrictions, and now Tehran has been hit, and the New York Times is saying Israel did it.
This would seem to suggest that Israel intentionally used lowering the home front warning status – knowing that Iran closely follows Israeli media – in order to get the ayatollahs to lower their guard and then carry out a surprise attack.
If Iran, in fact, does not attack back because the attack on Isfahan was limited and did not hit Iranian nuclear assets, this gamble by Israeli officials might be praised later as a stroke of genius.
Israeli officials could also say that with schools closed down, there are naturally fewer large civilian gatherings at this time.
And unless Iran is counter-fooling Israel, its initial reaction has been to tell its own civilians to return to regular routines, which at least initially suggests a non-reaction.
However, if Tehran does strike back, and more civilians are killed because of the lack of home front restrictions and readiness, there will probably be another commission of inquiry into the use of the home front restrictions.