A Finnish cabinet minister said on Friday that it was “highly likely” that Finland would apply for NATO membership, hours after Russia warned of unspecified “consequences” after Helsinki and Stockholm joined the military alliance. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February marked a dramatic U-turn in public and political opinion in both Finland and Sweden over long-standing policies of military non-alignment.
Finland’s prime minister said on Wednesday that the Nordic nation would decide whether to apply for NATO membership “within weeks”, and Sweden is also discussing joining the alliance. “At this point I can say that it is highly likely, but the decision has not yet been made,” said Finland’s European Affairs Minister Titti Tuppurainen.
“The people of Finland have already made up their mind and have a large majority for NATO membership,” she told Britain’s Sky News. Russia’s foreign ministry said earlier on Friday that the election was up to Finland and Sweden.
“But they must understand the consequences of such a move for our bilateral relations and the architecture of European security as a whole,” spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement.
Finland has a long history with Russia, with which it shares a 1,300-kilometre (800 mi) border. It declared independence in 1917 after 150 years of Russian rule.
During World War II, a large number of its forces fought the Soviet invasion, before a peace deal that saw it ceded many border areas to Moscow.
During the Cold War, Finland remained neutral in exchange for a guarantee from Moscow that it would not invade.
The Finnish government hopes to build a parliamentary consensus on the issue in the coming weeks, with lawmakers due to hear from security experts.
Many analysts predict that Finland may submit bids in time for a NATO summit in June.
Any membership bid must be accepted by all 30 NATO states, a process that can take anywhere from four months to a year.
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