Western Uttar Pradesh, which includes Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Shyamali and Saharanpur, heralded a turnaround for the BJP in the state in 2014 and helped the lotus bloom in 2017 and 2019.
These are the seats where Jat and Muslim voters have importance. In the 2017 assembly elections, out of 66 constituencies dominated by Jats, the BJP won 50.
In the bastions of Chaudhary Charan Singh and Ajit Singh, only one RLD MLA could win in 2017 and that too later joined the BJP. According to the CSDS-Lokniti survey, 77% of Jat voters voted for the BJP in the 2014 general elections, rising to 90% in 2019.
The farmers’ movement against the now repealed agricultural laws is a heavy factor, as the BJP backs it again in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections.
Speaking to News18, Bharatiya Kisan Union President Naresh Tikait says that the year-long agitation has irked Jats despite PM Narendra Modi’s announcement to withdraw the reforms. ,Pradhan Mantri ne kaha ki kisano ki saari baatein maan li jayengi, par sarkar khari nahi utar rahi us baat par. Kisano ke mudde jyo ke tyo hai (PM had promised that all concerns of farmers would be addressed, but issues are still pending),” Tikait said.
He said the loss, including the death of farmers, during the 13-month agitation was weighing heavily on the minds of the Jat voters. “Great if PM spoke something about him too… (It would have been nice if PM would say a word about him).”
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A group of Jats surrounded by a bonfire in Pinna village of Purkaji assembly constituency of Muzaffarnagar agrees with Tikait’s point but expresses support. Yogi Adityanath Cleanliness of the law and order of the government. ,Yogi Adityanath ki sarkar in crime khatam ho gaya. Achhe kaam bhi kiye hain government ne, lekin narazgi ye hai ki kisan ko pareshan kiya (The Yogi Adityanath government has put an end to crime in UP, but we are upset that farmers are suffering),” said Sumit Malik, a farmer.
Some farmers are also unhappy with cow protection laws, calling them counter-productive. The old man Randhir Malik said that unwanted and abandoned cattle are destroying crops on a daily basis.
Arvind Panwar, a resident of the village who is affiliated with the BKU-Bhanu faction, underestimated the impact of the farmers’ movement, but said that Jats, especially the youth, identify with RLD leader Jayant Choudhary. “I don’t see any effect of the farmers’ protest, but there is an emotional connection with Jayant Choudhary,” he says, adding that employment is also a big concern.
A similar sentiment is heard in Meerut and Baghpat, while the issue of remuneration for sugarcane resonates across the region. But some argue that the sugarcane price issue has been there even during the previous governments.
“Compared to the previous governments, the BJP has ensured better remuneration. No payment is pending for this village. Some payments are pending in Shyamali, but Raja ji (sugarcane minister) has ensured that it will be released soon,” said Pramod Tomar in Charthwal’s Bahadurpur village.
Another topic of discussion in this area is the possible political understanding between Jats and Muslims. While a powerful combination that could play the role of a kingmaker, the ghost of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots looms large.
In Kanwal village where the riots started, Mohammad Salim is a bitter man. His son Shahnawaz was the first casualty in August 2013. as RLD supported brotherhood societies Went from village to village to bring Muslims and Jats closer again, Salim said it was difficult to forgive and forget.
A kilometer away, the families of Sachin and Gaurav, with whom Shahnawaz reportedly had a fight, also refused. bhaichara (fraternal) logic.
“Two of our boys die, how can we forget this? Chaudhary Charan Singh is our relative. But after the riots no one came to us from there. We also have issues with the BJP. The roads that were promised were not built, but we will still vote for the BJP,” said Sachin’s uncle, wishing the RLD had joined hands with the saffron party instead.
Harnessing this sentiment, Union Home Minister Amit Shah met Jat leaders in Delhi and said that Jayant Choudhary had “chosen the wrong house” and Jats should urge him to reconsider.
Jayant turns down the offer, but all is not well in RLD-SP’s heaven. Jats protested in Shivlakhas of Meerut when Haji Ghulam Mohammad was given the RLD’s election symbol to contest the elections. “There was some initial doubt about the choice of the candidate. The Jats were not happy with Ghulam Mohammad,” said Meghraj Rathi of Jangithi village, but quickly added that the objection was to Mohammad and not the Muslim candidate.
Naushad of Shivlakhas panchayat said Jats are unhappy as Mohammad had defeated Ajit Singh in the last elections.
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While the SP and BSP are relying on a Jat-Muslim combination, the BJP is also wooing non-Jat Hindus in the region, hoping that the group’s combined support will be enough to challenge the overwhelming majority of Jats and Muslims. which can be divided between the opposition parties. ,
“We Will Vote For BJP Because It Is Over” goonda rajo,” said Swayam Kumar, a Kashyap Rajput from Charthawal in Muzaffarnagar.
Even in Baraut’s Tateri village, non-Jat Hindus express support for the BJP, although some residents say the government should pay more attention to the issues of farmers, especially sugarcane growers, and deal with reward hikes.
In Muzaffarnagar, the SP-RLD alliance enjoys the support of Muslims, with some even dismissing the failure of the SP government to stop the 2013 riots.
In Baraut Bazar, locals argue that the riots were “just an anomaly” in the history of the Jat-Muslim brotherhood. ,The Jat-Muslim brotherhood has been going on for centuries. In 1937, when Liakhat Khan stood against Chaudhary Charan Singh, the Muslims chose the latter. That’s why we consider Jayant Chaudhary as our leader.
In the 2014, 2017 and 2019 elections, the Samajwadi Party suffered major losses despite the support of the Muslim community. Will the tie-up with RLD be a turnaround for it this time? We will know on March 10.
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